by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk:
Let’s discuss some new polls, pollster accuracy, polling bias, the economy, and a reader question on Nate Silver.
Silver Bulletin Comments on Three New Trump-Favorable Polls
🕒 Last update: 1:45 p.m., Sunday, October 20. The data continues to be pretty negative for Kamala Harris. There are now three recent high-quality national polls that show Donald Trump leading — a difficult circumstance for Harris, given Democrats’ Electoral College disadvantage — and her edge in our national polling average is down to 1.7 points. National polls don’t influence the model that much, and the race remains basically a toss-up, but it’s not hard to think of reasons that Trump could win.
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1: Fox News Poll
Fox News reports Trump ahead of Harris by 2 points nationally
Former President Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential contest 50%-48%, according to a new Fox News national survey. That’s a reversal from last month, when Harris had a narrow advantage.
Harris, however, is ahead by 6 points among voters from the seven key battleground states (within the margin of error for that subsample), and the candidates are tied at 49% each among voters in close counties (where the Biden-Trump 2020 margin was less than 10 points). Trump’s advantage comes from a larger share in counties he won by more than 10 points in 2020 (64%-35%) than Harris has in counties Biden won by more than 10 points (58%-39%).
That raises the question of whether the Democrat could win the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote. In 2000 and 2016, it was the GOP candidate who lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College.
That’s certainly an interesting, if not outright shocking set of polls that has Trump ahead nationally but trailing in battlegrounds. Seriously?!
2: AtlasIntel National Poll
📊 ATLAS POLL – U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
🔴 Trump: 50.7% (-0.2)
🔵 Harris: 47.6% (+0.3)
⚪ Others/Don’t know: 1.7% (-0.2)
3: TIPP Tracking Poll Day 7
In the third of three high-quality polls, TIPP Insights reports Trump Surges Past Harris, Seizing 2-Point Lead
Powerful Momentum Shift Reverses the Race
Former President Donald Trump overtakes Vice President Kamala Harris and now enjoys a two-point lead, 49% to 47%, in the TIPP tracking poll. The data from the seventh release of the 23-day TIPP tracking poll shows the underlying change in the momentum. Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, TIPP continues to bring you the latest insights on the race.
The WaPo report did not include an evaluation of AtlasIntel. People are still debating what went wrong in 2020.
Here’s a free link to the Washington Post 2020 Accuracy Report.
2020 Accuracy
Nate Silver commented on Pollster Accuracy on X on March 21, 2021.
Finally, here’s how the most prolific pollsters fared in the general election. The best-performing pollster was AtlasIntel! Second was Trafalgar!
Yeah, they incorrectly had Trump winning a few states, but they were close on the margins, and that’s the better metric.
Note: I no longer embed Tweets because X embeds are broken and randomly display on WordPress. This appears to be an X issue, not a WordPress issue.
