by Mike Whitney, The Unz Review:
The long-pervasive belief in American military supremacy is a myth; a mirage; a fallacious narrative fashioned from fables and Hollywood films. The US military has not won a war since WW2. They have mercilessly bombed the crap out of many smaller, weaker countries, killed millions of people, and yet never once achieved strategic victory. Not since WW2 have they faced anything even faintly approximating high-intensity warfare. Indeed, never at any time in history has the US military fought against a great power adversary at the height of its strength. And now, here in 2024, the US military has never been in a more weakened state relative to any of its potential great power adversaries — namely, Russia, China, and Iran….An epoch of great changes is upon us. Will Schryver @imetatronink
TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/
Let’s cut to the chase: On Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered his most ominous statement to date. He said:
“Iran is behind all the threats against us. They launched hundreds of missiles against us in one of the biggest attacks in history. No country in the world would accept such an attack – Israel will not accept it either. Israel has the duty and the right to defend itself and respond to such attacks – and this is what we are going to do” MegatronRon
The statement has been interpreted by many as a straightforward pledge to launch a retaliatory strike on Iran. According to reports in the media, Israel’s war cabinet is debating whether to strike Iran’s oil infrastructure or its nuclear facilities. But whatever the target, Iranian officials have warned that ‘any Israeli attack’ will be met with an overwhelming and immediate response aimed primarily at Israel’s vital infrastructure. The warning was delivered in a short missive that was passed on to the Biden administration via allies in Qatar. The contents were later revealed in an article published by Aljazeera:
“We sent a message to Washington via Qatar, which addressed the situation in the region after our last strike on the Zionist entity, and in which we confirmed the end of the phase of unilateral self-restraint and that individual self-restraint does not secure the requirements of our national security, and any Israeli attack will be met with an unconventional response that includes infrastructure.”
In short, Iran no longer believes that simply demonstrating the capability of its missile systems is changing Israel’s behavior. So, the next time Iran is forced to attack, it’s going to inflict as much damage on Israel as humanely possible. It doesn’t get much blunter than that. If Israel attacks Iran, Iran is going to ‘bomb the hell’ out of Israel. Full stop.
And that is why—as of Saturday afternoon—the Biden administration has deployed “Dozens of additional U.S. fighter jets (to) the Middle East”, along with 40,000 US military personnel and two carrier strike groups, all of which will be used in the upcoming Israeli war on Iran.
This is ‘the state of play’ as of Sunday, October 6. We are on the brink of a full-blown regional war that will inevitably involve both the United States and Russia.
But why would Biden agree to support Israel in a war against Iran when Iran just proved that its state-of-the-art ballistic missiles far exceed anything in Israel’s arsenal and are obviously capable of destroying Israeli military sites, energy platforms, intelligence centers and vital infrastructure? This is from a post by the Armchair Warlord:
The Iranian strike on Nevatim and Tel Nof Airfields … in Israel on Tuesday completely validated my analysis from April. In April the Iranians demonstrated they could defeat Israel’s BMD system at will and strike precision targets – this time they did damage. Video of the engagement suggests that the vast majority of the Iranian salvo – probably more than 80% – penetrated and struck targets in Israel. …..
The Iranians can be expected to have damaged aircraft, infrastructure, SAM systems, and AD radars at both airfields, as well as hitting several other targets elsewhere in the country less intensively. The effectiveness of the strike can be seen by simply observing the Israeli reaction – rather than an immediate counterattack they have withdrawn for deliberations, with some talk of a deescalatory downward-step retaliation against the Houthis or Hezbollah. The reason for this is simple – the Iranians have now demonstrated the ability to overwhelm the Israeli AD system at will and precisely strike targets, and with their missile shield ineffective the Israeli leadership is coming to terms with the fact they run a small and isolated country with a limited amount of critical infrastructure
At this point the Ayatollah can push a button and turn the lights out in Israel, and no amount of American money can prevent that. Armchair Warlord@ArmchairW
And, although the Israeli-friendly media has tried to sugarcoat Iran’s October 1 attack, (and make it look like a ‘big nothingburger’) some of the mainstream journalists have come to their senses and realize that madman Bibi wants ‘to have another go’ at Iran. Which, by the way, would be suicide. Check out this piece in today’s Guardian which is aptly titled: Escalation with Iran could be risky: Israel is more vulnerable than it seems:
Satellite and social media footage has shown missile after missile striking the Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, and setting off at least some secondary explosions, indicating that despite the highly touted effectiveness of Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow air defences, Iran’s strikes were more effective than had been previously admitted.
Experts who analysed the footage noted at least 32 direct hits on the airbase. None appeared to have caused major damage, but some landed close to hangars that house Israel’s F-35 jets, among the country’s most prized military assets….
“The core fact remains that Iran has proven it can hit Israel hard if it so chose,” writes Decker Eveleth, an analyst with the research and analysis group CNA, who analysed the satellite images for a blogpost. “Airbases are hard targets, and the sort of target that likely won’t produce many casualties. Iran could choose a different target – say, a densely packed IDF ground forces base, or a target within a civilian area – and a missile strike there would produce a large number of [casualties].”…
Israel’s counterattack appears to be imminent.… local journalists have been briefed that the response to the Iranian strike is imminent, perhaps to be timed just before or after the 7 October anniversary of the Hamas attacks.
The target options include Iranian military facilities – including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military sites or command and control centres – and energy infrastructure, such as oil refineries, which could lead to a similar strike on Israel. There is also the option of a direct strike on Iran’s nuclear programme, which Tehran has warned is one of its red lines and which Biden has warned Netanyahu not to do….
“ballistic missile ping-pong between Israel and Iran that at any moment can spiral out of control, can result in casualties in Israel that would then result in further escalation, and that could then pull the United States in” – resulting in Iranian allies targeting US forces and bases in the region.
In the attack, Vaez said, Iran had “used their most advanced weapons, and they have sufficient stockpile of being able to do that for months. That would be the world we’ll be living in unless somebody pulls the plug on this cycle of escalation. Escalation with Iran could be risky: Israel is more vulnerable than it seems, The Guardian
Think about that for a minute: Iranian ballistic missiles landed 32 direct hits on the Nevatim airbase, the most heavily defended airbase on the planet. The Iranians have shown that they can put their missiles on any target in any location in Israel putting at risk “the country’s most prized military assets.” That’s worth mulling over, don’t you think?
So, now, we are finally hearing the truth about the October 1 attack, mainly because Israel’s supporters are worried that Netanyahu is going to recklessly provoke Iran in order to drag the United States into the fray. But doesn’t Bibi know that such an action would wind up inflicting incalculable damage to Israeli infrastructure as well as the loss of an untold number of Israeli civilians?
