by Matt Margolis, PJ Media:
Hurricane forecasters are bewitched, bothered, and bewildered. The Atlantic hurricane season was supposed to be epic. Instead, it’s turned into a real dud.
Huge storms wreaking havoc on coastlines from Aruba to Long Island were supposed to line up in the Eastern Atlantic in June and hit us one at a time until late September. The damage was going to be historic and the TV coverage was going to give climate change fanatics plenty of air time to vent that “this is just a foretaste” of what’s to come.
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But something puzzling occurred on the way to hurricane Armageddon: not much has happened. The Atlantic Ocean has seen five named storms: two tropical storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane this season.
“We definitely got started with an extremely active season,” says Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami.
Indeed, Beryl achieved Category 5 status earlier than any other hurricane in history. The July storm had meteorologists and forecasters scrambling for superlatives.
“I think it is kind of an omen of what the hurricane season will be,” says Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. “I think we will see some pretty amazing outlier events happen.”
Alas, the internet is forever. And McNoldy’s “omen” proved to be something much less. There hasn’t been a named storm since August 21 and the conditions, still optimum for large, dangerous storms to form, aren’t producing the killer hurricanes forecasters predicted.
The predictions and the reality of what’s happening point to the dangers for scientists who rush to judgment about a hypothesis based on wishful thinking. Scientists don’t know why hurricanes aren’t forming at the rate expected. All the elements are present for big storms to form early and often. But they aren’t. And while there’s still a chance that we will be slammed by one or two major hurricanes, the hurricane forecasts prove that we still have much to learn about this planet and its weather.
