by William Sullivan, American Thinker:
In February, I predicted that it can’t be Biden on the Democrat ticket in November, while also suggesting that Democrats were already aware of that fact, and that they were likely already scheming to replace him this summer.
Betting markets are finally agreeing with my prediction about Biden being replaced on the ticket, but I’m now wondering if I haven’t given Democrats far too much credit in assuming that their political wargames, or even that anything more than hushed musings at cocktail parties, actually included this bombshell scenario or its potential fallout. The presidential debate and its aftermath have certainly raised questions.
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I have no reason to doubt the truthfulness of famed pollster Nate Silver, for example, as he’s sounded the alarm repeatedly after Biden’s disastrous debate performance. Though admittedly partisan, he “still believes in empiricism and probabilistic thinking,” he says, and in light of recent polls and the evidence his eyes witnessed at the debate, he conceded a “new reality: Trump is probably going to become president again.”
He wasn’t alone. Van Jones, Cenk Uygur, Joe Scarborough, and even Joy Reid all expressed similar shock at Biden’s epic calamity on the debate stage, each effectively calling for a potential replacement on the presidential ticket.
Admittedly, Biden’s debate performance was even worse than most conservatives would have imagined. But “empiricism and probabilistic thinking” had already reasonably suggested that Biden was a catastrophe back in February, when only four-in-five Americans believed Biden to be too old to run for president, and he was already in a head-to-head deficit in polling by double-digits in each of the top issues among voters, including on his mental and physical health, the economy and inflation, border security, and on violence and crime.
One could forgive my error in presuming that Democrats had thoughtfully considered the possibility of a Biden replacement and having created a contingency plan. After all, to have not done so is nothing short of stupidity, and, Scarborough and Reid excepted, I hadn’t thought any of these others to be stupid people.
Yet, they appear to have been blindsided by all this. How is that possible?
Dogs Chasing Cars?
One explanation, which seems to me the likeliest, is that Democrats weren’t prepared for the spotlight to ever be moved away from Trump. His convictions in a sham trial, which was orchestrated by a former honcho in the federal Department of Justice who took an unprecedented demotion to a local prosecutor’s office that just happened to align with a prosecution against former president Trump, among other sham political indictments at the federal level, were meant to captivate the public. This yielded countless successive “Get Trump!” news cycles that led to tunnel vision for guys like Nate Silver, who didn’t manage to peer outside of his polling spreadsheets long enough to actually see and hear what other Americans were witnessing in Biden’s obvious physical frailty and cognitive decline, I guess.
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