by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk:
New Home Sales plunged. And the Census Department completely revised away last month’s fictional 8.8 percent rise.
New Residential Construction
The Census Department released a second consecutive heavily revised New Residential Construction report.
- New Home Sales: Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000.
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- This is 4.7 percent (±12.0 percent) below the revised March rate of 665,000 and is 7.7 percent (±13.2 percent) below the April 2023 estimate of 687,000.
- Sales Price: The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2024 was $433,500. The average sales price was $505,700.
- For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 480,000. This represents a supply of 9.1 months at the current sales rate.
Note the margins of error in this report, 12 percent and higher.
Last month, the Census Department reported sales at 693,000. This month the Census Department says oops, March sales were really only 665,000.
Compared to the March number as initially reported, sales are down 8.5 percent.
Bloomberg analysts forecast 675,000 new home sales. They overshot the mark by 6.1 percent.
Second Big Revision
Here’s my headline from last month: New Home Sales Rise 8.8 Percent After 3.8 Percent Negative Revision
These numbers may be revised again next month in any direction, but typically lower.
New Home Sales Since 1963
To put sales into perspective, they are about where they were in 1963.
Who can afford them? Prices are at record levels and mortgage rates are 7.17 percent according to Mortgage News Daily.
New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction
Allegedly, there are 480,00 homes for sale but 101,000 of them have not been started.
281,000 homes have been started and 98,000 are complete.
There are 379,000 homes started or completed. That is the most since May of 2008. Good luck with that at these mortgage rates, currently 7.17 percent.
I will do a follow-up post on this idea shortly.
New Homes for Sale Supply
From a fictitious number of new homes for sale of which 101,000 have not even been started, and a questionable and likely to be revised number of sales, the Census Bureau calculates a fictitious supply of 9.1 months.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales fell 1.9 percent in April and are also down 1.9 percent from a year ago. Sales have not gone anywhere for 17 months.
