Why Biden’s Red Sea Strategy Will Blow Up in His Face

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by Mike Whitney, The Unz Review:

The Houthis are going to prevent Israel-bound commercial ships from reaching Israeli ports as long as Israel prevents food, water and medicine from reaching Palestinians in Gaza. If Israeli leaders want to end the blockade, they need to stop killing Palestinians and end the siege. This is the simple, moral solution to the current crisis in the Red Sea.

Over the weekend, Houthi fighters launched attacks on two more commercial ships despite the presence of US warships patrolling the area. The primary target was the Maersk Hangzhou that was swarmed by small boats filled with Houthi militants who fired small arms weapons at the sailors on board. US Naval helicopters were sent to the scene and sunk three of the boats killing all of the crew.

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Sometime later, the Maersk Hangzhou was attacked again in the southern part of the Red Sea. It was hit by a missile that was launched from a location on Yemen’s coastline. Following the attack, the Hangzhou made a Mayday call requesting assistance from Naval ships operating in the area. According to one account: “The vessel is reportedly seaworthy an there are no reported injuries.”

It’s worth noting, that Maersk had ordered a complete suspension of all commercial ships passing through the Red Sea just two weeks ago on December 15. Maersk had only reluctantly agreed to resume sailing because leaders at the Pentagon had assured them that they would be safe. On December 19, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin launched a multi-national maritime task-force, named Operation Prosperity Guardian, that was supposed to protect commercial ships in Red Sea from Houthi missile and drone attacks. The incidents that occurred this weekend prove that Austin’s coalition is a failure. And Maersk has tacitly admitted it is a failure by pausing all sailing through the Red Sea for the next 48 hours. We expect that the “pause” will be indefinitely extended until the issue is resolved, which is unlikely to be anytime in the near future.

The decision to create a naval task force –that will ostensibly protect “freedom of navigation” in the Red Sea– is as foolish and reckless a policy as anything we’ve seen since the decision to invade Iraq. No one in the region has any misgivings as to why the US initiated the policy. The United States is forcefully expressing its full support for Israel’s sadistic war on the Palestinian people. That is the widely held perception, and that is the truth. The Biden administration has made no attempt to talk to the Houthis nor have they put any restrictions on Israel’s behavior. (No “red lines”) The only thing one can construe from Biden’s approach is that he has decided to entirely abandon the pretense of being an “impartial broker” on matters involving the Middle East, and opted instead to be an active participant in the hostilities on Israels side. In short, Operation Prosperity Guardian has nothing to do with “freedom of navigation”. It is the deployment of US military assets to further the Zionist aspiration of ethnically cleansing historic Palestine in order to create Greater Israel. The US has now joined Israel in its attempt to make that objective a reality.

As we mentioned earlier, the Houthis have agreed to end their attacks on commercial traffic in the Red Sea if Israel simply stops military operations long enough to deliver humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. This is not only a reasonable request, it’s a policy that is supported by the vast majority of nations and people around the world. Surprisingly, the Houthis are alone in taking positive, concrete steps to see that the policy is implemented. They have courageously put their own lives at risk for an oppressed people with who they have almost no direct contact. Their actions reflect the sincerity of their beliefs and a commitment to principle. It should surprise no one that they are so widely admired. Here’s more background from an article at Aljazeera:

If the task of Operation Prosperity Guardian were to be defined narrowly, only to prevent hits on merchant ships, it could be performed using the centuries-old principle of sailing in convoys with the protection of warships. In a convoy, slow, defenseless commercial cargoes sail in several columns at precisely defined distances from each other — led, flanked and tailed by fast warships that can take on any threat….

But every strategy has its limitations. A convoy is big and cumbersome, extending for miles to give behemoth ships a safe distance from each other and to enable them to maneuver if needed. Whatever the protective measures taken, huge tankers and container carriers – longer than 300 metres (984 feet) – still present big targets….

Their escorts, even if well-armed, carry a limited number of missiles and must plan their use carefully, allowing for further attacks down the shipping lane and ultimately leaving a war reserve for the defense of the ship itself. Once they expend some of the missiles, they need to replenish them – a task that is possible at sea but done much more quickly and safely in a friendly port out of reach of Houthi missiles.

To clear the critical 250 nautical miles (463km) along the Yemeni coast leading to or from the Bab al-Mandeb strait, advancing at assumed 15 knots (28kmph) — as convoys always sail at the speed of the slowest units — ships would be exposed to even the shortest-ranged Houthi missiles and drones for at least 16 hours.” Analysis: In the Red Sea, the US has no good options against the Houthis, Aljazeera

This brief excerpt illustrates the obvious shortcomings of the Pentagon strategy. A large naval escort will only create a more target-rich environment for Houthi missile launchersBesides –as we’ve already seen with the Maersk Hangzhou incident– the strategy doesn’t work. The proximity of US warships does not deter Houthi attacks nor will it assure freedom of navigation. The plan is neither economically feasible nor militarily practical. (Note: How long will the US be able to provide a naval flotilla to escort commercial ships carrying I-pods and Hula Hoops to market?)

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