by Turd Ferguson, TF Metals Report:
So here we are. Another BLSBS Friday. As we’ve been documenting and discussing, nearly all of the .gov-created economic data this year has been goosed higher for headlines and then revised lower at a later date, when no one is watching. And so it will be again with your latest “jobs report”.
Frankly, I don’t even know where to start. The LIES, SPIN and MOPE are now so thick, it’s almost impossible to unweave. I guess we’ll start with the actual headlines from 8:30 ET.
TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/
Right off the bat, your suspicions should be raised as the August “job total” is exactly the same as the number reported for July….187,000. What are the chances of that?
Next, we discussed how the birth-death adjustment was going to impact the total…and it did. After goosing the number by 280,000 in July, the “adjustment” added only 103,000 in August.
The unemployment rate jumped higher and average hourly earnings fell…which, by any measure, is not a good thing for anyone who is actually trying to survive and feed a family.
Along those lines, recall how many times we’ve discussed how part-time jobs are added. A person loses his/her full-time job with benefits like health care and a 401(k) and then desperately tries to replace the lost income with three part-time jobs. That’s horrible but that’s not how the BLS sees it. Nope. Instead, the economy sheds 85,000 full-time jobs but adds 272,000 part-time jobs and…voila…your BLSBS headline number is +187,000.
But, again, that’s not the worst of it. Recall the “record” streak of 14 consecutive months of “beating expectations”. Further recall how almost every one of those expectation-beating headline numbers were only revised lower in the months that followed. Well, the games continue. This is disgusting…
Be 100% certain that you don’t just gloss over that image above. On July 7, it was reported that “the US added 209,000 new jobs in June”. While this number was “slightly below expectations”, it was reported as evidence that “the US economy remains robust, despite all of The Fed’s rate hikes”…AND IT WAS ALL A LIE!!! What would have been the “market” reaction if the now twice-revised number of just 105,000 “new jobs” had been reported, instead? What a friggin scam.
So, anyway, it’s just…whatever. It’s hard to even care. Everyone…the financial media…the banks…the investment houses…the politicians…your stockbroker…EVERYONE…has a vested interest in believing the LIES. As such, there’s no one left to call them to account. See this tweet from the “Chief Investment Strategist” at Charles Schwab. Where’s the context? I had to add it myself.
OK, so, here’s how your “free and fair markets” have traded the latest LIES over the hour or so since they were released. Let’s start with the POSX. As you can see, it’s down about 15¢ on the “news”. Control the headlines and you can control the algos.
Speaking of algos, you likely won’t be surprised to see that the same charts of CDG and CDS are almost mirror images of the POSX. CDG is now up only $2 in the time since and CDS is actually DOWN. I shit you not. But the stonk market is up and that’s all that really matters.
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