by Peter Schiff, Schiff Gold:
The bleed of metal from COMEX vaults has resumed and silver inventories have hit record lows with 28 paper claims for each ounce of physical silver.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Registered = Warrant assigned and can be used for Comex delivery, Eligible = No warrant attached – owner has not made it available for delivery.
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Gold
After two months of increasing inventories, the outflows have resumed. So far in June, 300k ounces of gold have left Comex vaults.
Figure: 1 Recent Monthly Stock Change
The daily activity can be seen below. As the June contract was approaching, metal was leaving Registered (metal available for delivery) and moving into Eligible. This is the opposite of what usually occurs before delivery begins. More recently, that metal started to flow out of Eligible with about 400k ounces leaving in the last few days before a small increase.
Figure: 2 Recent Monthly Stock Change
Pledged gold ended up seeing a pretty large uptick on June 6. This was the largest single-day up-move since April 2022.
Figure: 3 Gold Pledged Holdings
Silver
Silver has also seen outflows continue after a brief respite in May. The bleed-out in Registered has continued unabated during that time. Registered supplies are now at the lowest level since 2016 (more on this below).
Figure: 4 Recent Monthly Stock Change
The daily activity in silver has been a bit more volatile than gold. While Eligible continues to move up and down, the Registered activity is mostly sporadic outflows with a few inflows here and there.
Figure: 5 Recent Monthly Stock Change
The table below summarizes the movement activity over several time periods to better demonstrate the magnitude of the current move.
Gold
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- The change in Eligible and Registered have almost completely negated each other over the last month
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- 700k out of Registered with 690k into Eligible
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- The one-year change has been nearly identical in Registered (-5.6M) and Eligible (-5.4M)
- The change in Eligible and Registered have almost completely negated each other over the last month
Silver
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- Registered silver saw a big move out over the last month, dropping 2.6M and bringing total Registered to 27M ounces
- Eligible silver increased 2.5M ounces over the month but saw a drop in the latest week of almost 2M ounces
- Registered silver has fallen by 81% over the last 3 years (115M ounces)!
Palladium/Platinum
Palladium and platinum are much smaller markets but that may be where the market breaks first.
- Both metals have seen small net outflows over the last month. Platinum is approaching a delivery month that could see activity increase.
