by Tom Harris, America Outloud:
(GHG) emissions are increasing worldwide because humanity is using more and more coal, oil, and natural gas. Yes, several Western nations are reducing their fossil fuel consumption. But it is increasing in developing nations, particularly China and India, now the world’s most populous nation. And given that China, which has no requirement under the Paris Agreement to ever reduce emissions, emits twice that of the US, any emission reductions we make are quickly made up for in developing countries.
In this, part two of my three-part series about the climate policy myths that dominate the climate debate, I will explain why we should simply withdraw from the Paris Agreement as it is impeding our growth for no environmental benefit.
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We need to recognize that the plans submitted to the UN in fulfillment of countries’ Paris Agreement commitments are entirely voluntary in nature. The Agreement contains no legal obligations to reduce emissions and no penalties for non-compliance. So, the Paris Agreement will not force any nations to make emissions reductions.
However, the Paris Agreement gives significant advantages to China, still considered a developing country by the U.N., that do not apply to Canada, the U.S., and other developed nations. Compare the following nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that Canada, the U.S., and China have agreed to follow under the Paris Agreement (note: achievement of a country’s NDC is not legally binding):
The Government of Canada (GC) initially pledged to reduce GHG emissions (about 80% of which is CO2) by approximately 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. In June 2021, Canada passed the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, which legislates a 2050 net-zero target. In July 2021, the GC updated the UNFCCC NDC that it intends to achieve: it is now 40 – 45% below 2005 levels by 2030.
Under President Barack Obama, the U.S. initially agreed to reduce its GHG emissions (about 81% of which is CO2) by between 26% and 28% below its 2005 levels by 2025. In line with President Joe Biden’s unilateral decision to rejoin the Paris Agreement, on April 22, 2021, the U.S. submitted a revised NDC of reducing GHG emissions by 50% – 52% below 2005 levels by 2030 (the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 promises about the same), including land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). In addition, in November 2021, the Biden administration officially committed the USA to net-zero emissions no later than 2050.
In its initial Paris Agreement NDC pledge (2016), China committed to stop increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by “around 2030.” In December 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a planned revision, namely that by 2030, “China will lower its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by over 65 percent from the 2005 level.” Just before the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Scotland in November 2021, China officially submitted its new NDC pledge to “peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality (net-zero) before 2060,” plus some renewable energy targets. Climate Action Tracker comments, “China’s proposed NDC update is only a slight improvement from its first NDC.”
It makes no sense for developed countries to agree that China, which emits double that of the U.S., is permitted to increase emissions to 2030 while immediately restricting Canada and the U.S. More industries will simply move to China, and total global emissions will then likely rise even more quickly.
The Paris Agreement is actually far more asymmetric still.
Under the Agreement, China and other developing nations need not ever cut back on emissions. On page one of the Agreement, it states:
“The Parties to this Agreement, Being Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [i.e., the UNFCCC], hereinafter referred to as ‘the Convention.’ …In pursuit of the objective of the Convention, and being guided by its principles…”
The Convention is referenced no less than 51 times in the Paris Agreement. So, Paris is clearly based on the UNFCCC, and Article 4 in the Convention states:
“The extent to which developing country Parties will effectively implement their commitments under the Convention will depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention related to financial resources and transfer of technology and will take fully into account that economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties.”
Expressed in plain English, under Paris and other treaties based on the UNFCCC, any emission reduction commitments made by developing nations are contingent on developed countries giving them enough technology and, more importantly, sufficient funds. Former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt illustrated the scale of this when he said in an October 17, 2017 Fox News interview that, “India conditioned all of the responsibilities on receiving $2.5 trillion of aid.”
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