by Paul Craig Roberts, Paul Craig Roberts:
This morning I wrote that Putin had so badly mishandled the Ukraine conflict that his only choice was surrender or military victory, a victory he has been avoiding for more than three years. If the Financial Times can be believed, Putin has chosen surrender, or perhaps more accurately, partial surrender or semi-surrender.
The Financial Times reports that “Vladimir Putin has offered to halt his invasion of Ukraine at the current front line as part of efforts to reach a peace deal with US President Donald Trump, according to people familiar with the matter.” [The Financial Times continues to display its ignorance or its partisanship by designating Russian military action limited to the Russian territories as an “invasion of Ukraine.” The Financial Times has proven so unreliable in its coverage that I cannot say I have confidence in this report.]
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Moreover, the Financial Times reported that Putin told President Trump’s Special Envoy for Ukraine, Steve Witkoff, that Moscow could sweeten the deal by relinquishing Russia’s claims to areas of the four regions currently considered by the Kremlin to be part of Russia. This concession despite Putin himself having introduced constitutional amendments barring Russia from relinquishing claims to any of its territory.
Putin has yet again shown that nothing he says in defense of Russia means anything. All along Putin has said he would not accept any peace deal unless Ukraine withdrew its troops from the front lines and gave Moscow full control over the four provinces. Now suddenly Putin is willing to piss away a military victory and, perhaps, give back battlefield gains of Russian populated areas for a deal. This point is not clear.
The Financial Times says Putin has stepped back from his demands. When you refuse to play your winning cards, what kind of deal can you expect? By showing such desperation for a deal while winning on the battlefield, Putin has further enhanced his reputation as a person irresolute in war. The consequence for Russia will be another disastrous agreement, such as the Minsk Agreement, that will not be kept and that will evolve into worse conflict.
What Trump wants is not a Great Powers Agreement, but a settlement that lets Trump claim success in ending the conflict. Any agreement will not last beyond Trump’s term of office.
Here is the Financial Times report:
Vladimir Putin offers to halt Ukraine invasion along current front line
https://www.ft.com/content/5d848403-4a15-4592-888b-eb7b754ecb3a
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