by Single Farmer, Survival Blog:
(Continued from Part 4.)
Gold: What one ounce can buy in a grimy world
In the event that a “collapse” occurs and there is some sort of barter event in my area, you will likely not see me or any members of our group. It is incredibly doubtful that I or any member of our group would ever show up at a barter event as we already have everything that we need and stock extra in quantity just to avoid such events. An event such as this would likely have many security and OPSEC issues, could lead to the spread of contagious diseases, and likely would involve many desperate individuals. As you win 100 percent of the unnecessary fights that you avoid, this is relatively easy win for well-prepared individuals to achieve.
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There are probably some out there who have a nice stack of gold and silver and somehow think there is a gigantic value in a grimy world as things will somehow automatically adjust in value. Maybe someday, but in this scenario, not so much. I do not need your gold and silver, but you probably need the goods that I have put away for such a time as this. How much is a meal worth when you are starving? For Esau, it was his birthright that gave him a right to the first-born blessing and a double portion of the inheritance. (See Genesis 25:29-34). How much is medicine worth to you that doctors have stored away when your child is dying?
Please do not tell me that people are somehow cruel for allowing unprepared individuals to die in such a scenario if on some theoretical level they could maybe possibly could save one person. The truth is that these individuals made a series of unfortunate decisions that got them to that point and prepared people made a series of decisions that got them to this point. Some families get regular bouts of “food poisoning” or gastrointestinal illness, but we do not as we have studied proper techniques of food preparation and sanitation to break cycles of illnesses and disease. I have had people tell me that it does not matter how they prepare or store their food and they are often the ones regularly writhing in pain. I learn very quickly, but some are slow learners.
There is a preparedness concept called “triage” and you should learn it sooner rather than later, as survivalists use it. We have limited resources. We made sacrifices to get to where we are, and we make decisions based on that. We have stored thousands of pounds of food and supplies including another large amount recently purchased for charitable purposes to distribute to people in genuine need in a collapse scenario. My conscience is very clean as my family has spent decades encouraging preparedness with others and yet few have listened. Temporarily saving people who will die anyway would just expend our limited resources.
Since you are probably wondering what an ounce of gold would buy in a grimy world in this scenario, it is probably not much. Gold’s value is only in what people are willing to trade for it. Right now in early February 2025, gold trades for more than $2,800 per ounce. (Twenty Eight Hundred Dollars an ounce. Just take than figure in.) Gold at the turn of the century traded at almost 90 percent less — or you could easily purchase one ounce of gold for less than the price of one 1/10 ounce bullion Gold Eagle today. It is not gold that is worth so much, but people have been placing a gigantic risk premium on dollars over the past 25 years.
I cannot emphasize this enough: Buy the supplies that you can afford now, because currently they are historically inexpensive. In an economic collapse scenario, I do not foresee people who have stored their supplies often sacrificing their pleasures today to save resources willing to trade scarce goods for small or even large amounts of gold or silver. There are many people today who are living great lives and saving nothing tangible for tomorrow. They are living the “good life” now and are putting nothing aside. If the gold is really gilding and becomes grime, they will likely regret their choices. Frankly, I am very blessed that I live a great life, have resources to prepare, and give generously to those in genuine need,. But that is a function of my family being involved in preparedness for three generations.
This is a theoretical discussion for nothing has happened and nothing is being offered by me for “sale.” I cannot see people who have put away supplies parting with them for very small amounts of “precious metals” as that is their “legacy” inventory unlikely ever to be replaced perhaps for decades. Western Europe did not achieve the level of sanitation and civilization of the late Roman Empire in the 4th century again until the 1800s. So, in the event of a collapse, rebuilding could take some time depending on the level of damage, the number of technicians available, and the re-establishment of law and order. A shrewd businessman must always consider his replacement cost. Perhaps pounds of precious metals may buy you something in trade when an item is truly scarce and you need it.
I have the benefit of a vast collection of catalogs and magazines showing the prices of the past, because family members have saved them. Swiss-made water filters back in the 1980s were selling for about $150 each and recently I saw them for under $250 each. One hundred fifty dollars was a lot of money back in the 1980s. So the price of water filters has actually decreased relative to the overall price level increase, with inflation. Consider a grain mill: Yes, grain mills have increased in price over the years and according to my research have more than doubled in price in the past 25 years. It would not be unrealistic that if someone asked for an ounce or even a pound of gold in exchange for a water filter or hand crank grain mill in such a scenario. There is a lot of gold and silver in circulation, but how many people have extra water filters or hand-crank grain mills on their shelves?
