by Paul Craig Roberts, Paul Craig Roberts:
Negotiations have many downsides, such as disputes over compliance, personality conflicts, arousal of anger and contempt, involvement of the egos of the negotiators, and negotiations have not served Russia well. Already Ukraine has violated the partial ceasefire agreement Putin made with Trump:
“A gas pipeline supplying the European Union is on fire in Russia due to an Ukraine Drone strike. A massive pillar of flames is visible near the Kursk(Russia) – Sumy (Ukraine) border. Meanwhile, Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry cries foul: “Kyiv has already violated the ceasefire. How will Trump deal with these mad terrorists?”
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It was just earlier this week that President Trump and President Putin agreed to a ceasefire against “energy infrastructure.” “Putin agreed and immediately conveyed the appropriate order to Russian Forces. So effective was President Putin’s Order that Russian Forces which had already launched Drones toward Ukraine to attack such targets, used Russia’s own air defenses to shoot down their own drones rather than cause a problem under President Putin’s order!”
Nadezhda Romanenko reports on the immediate violation of the ceasefire agreement:
“This latest incident is not occurring in a vacuum. It is part of a long and well-documented pattern of deception and provocation, especially in the face of good-faith overtures by Russia.”
“As if anyone expected something different,” she adds. Well, Putin and Lavrov did. Negotiation with the West doesn’t seem to be a Kremlin skill. Possibly, Zelensky’s agreement to a ceasefire did not apply to a partial ceasefire, and Ukraine struck the Russian energy infrastructure prior to Trump speaking again with Zelensky.
https://www.rt.com/russia/614599-kiev-gas-attack-trust/
The British prime minister has threatened Russia with “devastating consequences” if Putin violates the ceasefire agreement. He is considering sending British jets to provide air cover for Ukrainian soldiers. A British admiral said that one British submarine with Trident missiles could incinerate 40 Russian cities and it should make Putin afraid. In other words, Washington’s “British ally” and also much of NATO Europe intend to frustrate a peace agreement with air support for Ukraine and perhaps nuclear cover from Britain and France for Ukraine. A question before us is whether a Trump-Putin peace agreement means the death of NATO.
Meanwhile, Putin’s unwillingness to use force to win the conflict brings daily new embarrassments to Russia. On March 20 a massive drone attack was launched from Ukraine on Russia’s air base in Engels, central Russia.
By delaying a victory in the conflict, Putin has revealed to the West all of the Russian weapon systems, thus enabling the West to make compensating adjustments to its weapon systems. Thus, Putin has pissed away the Russian advantage in weapon systems. By not getting the war over with, Putin has also allowed the West to learn all of the vulnerabilities in the Russian air defense system. It does seem that Putin is as unfamiliar with how to fight a war as he is with how to negotiate. Indeed, why is Putin negotiating at all?
Apparently negotiations are a trap that Putin cannot resist. Will the ceasefire be another eight year deception for Putin like the Minsk Agreement?
Before the ink is dry on the ceasefire limited to energy infrastructure, missiles or drones fired by someone from Ukrainian territory struck an oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar Region the day after the agreement and blew up a gas metering station in Sudzha last Friday.
What did Russia do? Did Putin announce that the other side had violated the agreement within 24 hours, and finally, after three years of dilly-dallying use the force required to end the conflict? No. A military victory would eliminate negotiations, which seem to have the highest value for Putin despite negotiations having a perfect record of being a disaster for Russia. Determined to keep negotiations going, the Russian government “reserves the right to retaliate” perhaps, sometime, maybe.
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