by Charles Rotter, Watts Up With That:
Ah, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse—our old friend. Like a horror movie franchise that refuses to die, the idea that the Gulf Stream is about to shut down and plunge Europe into an icy apocalypse has returned. This time, the BBC is breathlessly warning that “the chance of it happening is growing”. But before you start knitting survivalist-grade wool socks, let’s take a moment to review how many times we’ve heard this story before—and why it never seems to pan out.
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A Climate Catastrophe… Someday, Maybe, Possibly
According to the BBC, AMOC is supposedly “getting weaker,” but they immediately admit that direct measurements have only been taken since 2004—meaning we have barely two decades of actual data. Now, call me old-fashioned, but when you’re talking about an ocean system that has been operating for millions of years, 20 years of data is like trying to predict a person’s entire life based on a single Tuesday morning.
And what’s their big evidence? Ocean floor sediments and a “cold blob” in the Atlantic. That’s right, they’re looking at dirt samples and a patch of water that isn’t warming like the rest of the ocean, and somehow, this is supposed to spell doom for civilization.
This wouldn’t be so bad if they admitted the uncertainty. Instead, the article plays a game of “it’s probably not happening, but it totally could!” For instance, the IPCC says they have “medium confidence” that AMOC will not collapse this century. But some other scientists say, well, maybe it could! As one of them warns, we “maybe need to be worried”.
What kind of science is this? It sounds more like a horoscope than a serious climate analysis.
Fear-Mongering 101: Every Climate Scare is the Last One
Here’s where it gets really interesting. The article includes dire warnings that “even the most likely scenario” could lead to disastrous storms and colder European winters. But haven’t we been told for decades that global warming was supposed to make winters warmer? How many times have we heard that skiing in the Alps would be a thing of the past? Now, suddenly, the UK is going to be plunged into Arctic conditions.
It’s the ultimate climate fear two-for-one special: No matter what happens—hotter, colder, wetter, drier—it’s all climate change, and it’s all your fault.
Of course, this isn’t the first time we’ve heard these predictions. The same scare popped up in The Day After Tomorrow (2004), based on theories that had been bouncing around for decades before that. In 2015, similar claims made headlines, only for scientists later to admit that “the jury is still out” on whether AMOC is actually slowing down.
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