by Steve Kirsch, Steve Kirsh’s Newsletter:
Is it bulletproof? If both R0 and IFR increased due to the shots, there was no benefit.
Executive summary
Vaccines work by either:
- reducing spread (aka lowering R0 which is the rate of viral spread at t=0 or Rt which is the rate of viral spread at time t>0) and/or
- by lowering the risk of death if infected (i.e., they lower the infection fatality rate (IFR) which is typically measured as a change in the case fatality rate (CFR))
We can measure both impacts.
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If the R0 was reduced, we’d flatten the curve. That didn’t happen. Areas that were boosted shortly before Omicron had a much higher peak than those that were less boosted. And the CFR was temporarily increased by over 2X post vaccine in large scale objective data.
Most importantly, nobody has been able to explain away the evidence I’ll show you below.
My argument
Let’s assume the vaccine saved lives.
Clearly, the greatest benefit of the vaccines will be in early 2021 because after that everyone is “naturally vaccinated” by the virus.
Secondly, vaccine efficacy wanes over time.
Therefore, if there is any benefit to be had, it would be most clearly demonstrable in early 2021.
There are only two ways a vaccine can provide a mortality benefit (and ChatGPT concurs):
- reduce the R0 of subsequent variants (or the Rt of the current variant but it’s much less effective since it’s normally too late)
- Reduce the IFR of the current or subsequent variants
The COVID vaccines did none of these. It increased both parameters.
The impact on R0 was to raise it, not lower it as promised
See this mini-tutorial on R0 (it takes 1 minute to read).
Remember “flatten the curve”? Vaccines are supposed to decimate R0 and crush it to be flat. They are NEVER supposed to amplify R0 which is what these vaccines clearly did and the evidence has been in plain sight for over 3 years now and nobody is paying attention.
The relative height of the Omicron outbreak in Israel and Denmark is undeniable evidence of an R0 increase.
If you compare alpha with Omicron, Omicron should be around 2X higher peak as we can see from the US wastewater data from all 192 sites:
Israel and Denmark were among the most vaccinated places on earth with strong recent boosters BEFORE Omicron hit. They both had the highest infection rate in the world. Look at this graph comparing the US, Denmark, and Israel for cases.
Right before the outbreak both Israel and Denmark had twice the booster coverage as the US. So Israel and Denmark should have the lowest peaks (a measure of R0) of any nation on earth, not the highest!
And the ratio of heights of alpha vs Omicron in our “vaccine enhanced” countries was over 10X, but the US wastewater data shows it should have been 2.2X.
The easiest way to clearly see the “amplified R0” effect is cumulative COVID cases. Look how the countries were tracking each other until Omicron. You can clearly see the disparity once Omicron hit:
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