from 21st Century Wire:
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has moved the Doomsday Clock forward by one second, highlighting the growing threats of nuclear risks, disruptive technologies, and biosecurity challenges. However, the statement does not address the new U.S. administration’s rhetoric, particularly former President Trump’s calls for displacing the Gaza population, which violates international law and could escalate regional conflict.
It also overlooks Israel’s nuclear program and the lack of IAEA oversight. Additionally, Trump’s use of threats and sanctions against Russia regarding Ukraine may have influenced the Clock’s adjustment closer to midnight.
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Adjusting the Clock to a position just one second shy of midnight serves as a profound alert from the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. This action underscores the critical state of the world, suggesting that even a minor adjustment is emblematic of significant peril. It conveys a clear message that any delay in taking corrective measures heightens the risk of a global catastrophe.
Adam Dombovarireports for theBulletin of the Atomic Scientists…
Closer than ever: It is now 89 seconds to midnight
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In 2024, humanity edged ever closer to catastrophe. Trends that have deeply concerned the Science and Security Board continued, and despite unmistakable signs of danger, national leaders and their societies have failed to do what is needed to change course. Consequently, we now move the Doomsday Clock from 90 seconds to 89 seconds to midnight—the closest it has ever been to catastrophe. Our fervent hope is that leaders will recognize the world’s existential predicament and take bold action to reduce the threats posed by nuclear weapons, climate change, and the potential misuse of biological science and a variety of emerging technologies.
In setting the Clock one second closer to midnight, we send a stark signal: Because the world is already perilously close to the precipice, a move of even a single second should be taken as an indication of extreme danger and an unmistakable warning that every second of delay in reversing course increases the probability of global disaster.
In regard to nuclear risk, the war in Ukraine, now in its third year, looms over the world; the conflict could become nuclear at any moment because of a rash decision or through accident or miscalculation. Conflict in the Middle East threatens to spiral out of control into a wider war without warning. The countries that possess nuclear weapons are increasing the size and role of their arsenals, investing hundreds of billions of dollars in weapons that can destroy civilization. The nuclear arms control process is collapsing, and high-level contacts among nuclear powers are totally inadequate given the danger at hand. Alarmingly, it is no longer unusual for countries without nuclear weapons to consider developing arsenals of their own—actions that would undermine longstanding nonproliferation efforts and increase the ways in which nuclear war could start.
(…) Growth in solar and wind energy has been impressive but remains insufficient to stabilize the climate. Judging from recent electoral campaigns, climate change is viewed as a low priority in the United States and many other countries.
(…) Supposedly high-containment biological laboratories continue to be built throughout the world, but oversight regimes for them are not keeping pace, increasing the possibility that pathogens with pandemic potential may escape. Rapid advances in artificial intelligence have increased the risk that terrorists or countries may attain the capability of designing biological weapons for which countermeasures do not exist.
An array of other disruptive technologies advanced last year in ways that make the world more dangerous. Systems that incorporate artificial intelligence in military targeting have been used in Ukraine and the Middle East, and several countries are moving to integrate artificial intelligence into their militaries. Such efforts raise questions about the extent to which machines will be allowed to make military decisions—even decisions that could kill on a vast scale, including those related to the use of nuclear weapons. Tensions among the major powers are increasingly reflected in competition in space, where China and Russia are actively developing anti-satellite capabilities; the United States has alleged that Russia has tested a satellite with a dummy warhead on it, suggesting plans to place nuclear weapons in orbit.
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