by Brian C. Joondeph, American Thinker:
The 2024 election is just days away.
Media coverage, especially on social platforms, is rampant with fake news and misinformation, making it challenging to distinguish between what is real and what is misinformation. Although opinion polls are far from flawless, they offer a quantitative glimpse into the electoral landscape.
I rely on the most trustworthy pollsters to gauge the electorate.
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According to Rasmussen Reports, “One week prior to Election Day, former President Donald Trump holds a two-point advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in the most recent daily tracking poll for the 2024 presidential election.”
This indicates that Trump could win the popular vote.
The last Republican presidential candidate to achieve this was George W. Bush, twenty years ago in 2004.
Screenshot The Last Refuge // by permission
If Trump prevails next week, winning the popular vote may silence some of the anticipated Democratic butt-hurt labeling Trump an “illegitimate president.”
However, the national popular vote does not establish the winner, a lesson that Hillary Clinton learned in 2016.
The next occupant of the White House is determined by the Electoral College, which consists of 50 individual state elections.
According to AtlasIntel, the most reliable pollster from the 2020 election, Trump is forecasted to secure victory with 296 electoral votes, while Harris is expected to receive 242. This isn’t a landslide, but it is a solid win.
For a third opinion, Nate Silver has Harris up by a point nationally in his model. But the trend lines nationally and in battleground states are rising for Trump and falling for Harris.
Most states are firmly aligned as red or blue, Republican or Democrat, respectively, and are unlikely to change. As in previous elections, just a few key battleground states will decide the outcome.
RealClearPolitics presents the average polling results from the seven battleground states, providing perspective on the election in relation to the Electoral College. In these states, Trump leads by +1.0.
Looking at specific states, Arizona is Trump +2.5, Nevada is Trump +0.5, Wisconsin is Harris +0.2, Michigan is Harris +0.4, Pennsylvania is Trump +0.8, North Carolina is Trump +1.0, and Georgia is Trump +2.4.
Trump needs the majority, though not necessarily all, of these states to prevail on Nov. 5. While it’s possible to speculate numerous combinations and permutations of these states, the current data, just a week before Election Day, favors Trump.
Since this article started with national polls, let’s look back at previous elections and compare national polls. The RealClearPolitics national average from five days prior to the upcoming election indicates Donald Trump with a +0.4 lead. Though it’s a slight advantage, where did candidate Trump stand four and eight years ago?
In 2020, just five days before the election, the national average indicated Joe Biden +7.4, a race he narrowly secured, setting aside election chicanery.
In 2016, just a week before the election, the RCP national average showed Hillary Clinton at +1.3. We all remember the outcome of that race.
Trump’s national lead of +0.4 might appear slim, but as Newsweek states, “Republican nominee Donald Trump is slightly ahead of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the average of national polls by aggregator RealClearPolling for the first time since August.”
Trends hold significance, especially during the final days approaching the election.
Crowd size and enthusiasm at political rallies are harder to measure, yet both show support for Trump. An example was his massive recent gathering at Madison Square Garden in overwhelmingly Democratic New York City.
Then there are the snapshots and soundbites. From Trump serving fries at McDonald’s a few weeks ago to giving a press conference from a garbage truck a few days ago, Trump is a master at trolling Democrats and the media, throwing their lies and disparagement back in their faces.
Finally, let’s examine betting odds. While opinion polls capture voter desires, betting odds show what bettors anticipate will occur, focusing on their expectations rather than aspirations.
RealClearPolitics’ most recent betting odds show Trump with a 63% likelihood of winning the election, while Harris trails at just 36%.
Voting is only part of the equation. As Joseph Stalin said, “Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything.” Election integrity is a key issue in this election, with significant differences of opinion on this issue between the two parties.
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