by Mike Whitney, The Unz Review:
We make threats, but what exactly are we going to do? We’re the guys who couldn’t stop the Houthis from shutting down the Red Sea. Okay? So, we need to stop thinking of ourselves as this undefeated heavyweight champion that no one can lay a glove on. We may have been that in our prime, but we’re past our prime. We’re overweight, we’re out of shape, we have really expensive systems that are really undermanned, and then, all of a sudden, we have to extend our logistics and communication lines to attack Iran? Good luck with that. Larry Johnson: Iran’s new Strategy to teach Israel a Harsh lesson, You Tube
Israel’s failed aerial assault on Iran on October 26 augurs a major shift in the regional balance of power. Iran’s technologically advanced air defense system coupled with its state-of-the-art, long-range hypersonic ballistic missile stockpile make it the most powerful state in the Middle East portending a peaceful era of cooperation and economic integration ahead.
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In contrast, Israel will be forced to accept its modest role in the emerging order by abandoning its expansionist ambitions and working collaboratively with its neighbors. (If that’s possible.) The prospects for regional peace have been greatly enhanced by the steady erosion of US global power due in large part to the looming financial crisis that will unavoidably curtail Washington’s relentless foreign interventions. With US and Israeli meddling in check, the China-led multipolar world order will quickly replace the threadbare “rules-based” system. Even so, the proximate cause of these remarkable events can be traced back to Israel’s misguided attack on Iran which proved beyond a doubt that Tehran’s multi-layered air defense system along with its prodigious cache of cutting-edge ballistic missiles made it the preeminent power in the region. Here’s a brief summary from former British intel officer Alastair Crooke of how Israel’s attack unfolded:
Judge Andrew Napolitano—Did Israel cause any meaningful damage to Iran in its attack on October 26?
Alastair Crooke—No, but something significant did happen, because the attack was supposed to lead off with the destruction of the air defense systems…. what they call SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) The aircraft was supposed to destroy the air defenses in Iraq, Syria and Iran so the second and third waves would come in with conventional weapons to destroy the targets that had been selected for them. But the second and third wave could only enter Iranian airspace if it was safe for them to do that. (if the air defenses had been properly suppressed) Now what happened (although we don’t know precisely) is that those second and third waves never happened. We got into the first wave and the Israelis said “That’s it, we’re finished. It’s over. We won and it’s a great success.”
What seems to have happened is that the Israeli aircraft with their long-range missiles to destroy the air defense systems never got closer than 70 kms to Iran, too far for their missiles to lock on to the air defenses because they needed the signals to lock onto. …The key thing they said—and this is from Israeli sources—“We’ve discovered an unknown air defense system over Tehran province.” So what seems to have happened is that they (the Israeli aircraft) were being locked onto by another air defense system so they were frightened to go ahead and they scrapped the attack. They then simply released their long-range missiles (Most of these missiles are guided by GPS and the Russians are highly adept at jamming GPS.) But …this unexplained air defense system, was possibly a Russian air defense system that can attack stealth fighters like the F-35s. … If you have a missile that has a radar capacity that is able to identify a stealth fighter, then the whole idea of the attack on Iran seems to have collapsed….
All the conventional bombers carrying conventional weapons wouldn’t go into the area because it was too dangerous, it was not a secure area. The airspace was dominated by air defense that threatened the stealth fighters themselves.
This has huge geostrategic implications if this is what in fact happened….
You see, there was a three-phased plan; and when the plan was scuppered, they just announced the plan as if it had happened. “We’ve succeeded. We flew over Tehran; we suppressed their air defenses, we bombed targets and we destroyed their missile capacity.”
It’s just hype. It’s not true. Judging Freedom, Alastair Crooke, You Tube
So, now Israel has decided to cover up what actually transpired because the strategic implications are just too catastrophic to face. As Crooke points out, if America’s stealth fighters cannot enter enemy space without fear of being detected, then the “whole western defense concept” lies in ruins. So, what Israel’s failed operation did was to expose the vulnerability of critical military assets that have been rendered obsolete by technologically advanced air defense systems that can not only intercept enemy missiles mid-flight but can also destroy the warplanes that launch them.
