by Jim Rickards, Daily Reckoning:
Tomorrow is the day that Americans have been waiting for with anticipation (and yes, many with dread).
What does a Trump or Harris win mean for the country? The differences couldn’t be more stark.
What to Expect From a Trump Victory
Trump supports lower taxes, less regulation, higher tariffs on imported goods, a secure border, deportation of illegal immigrants (starting with criminals and terrorists), and a strong military but little or no involvement in foreign conflicts. And he wants to “drill, baby, drill.”
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Trump’s policies will be very good for U.S. jobs, wages, the U.S. economy, and, by extension, U.S. stocks. However, they will not necessarily be good for the global economy.
I was in a debate recently and somebody mentioned that India and China will suffer under Trump. That’s their problem. Right now, we’re trying to prop up all these foreign economies. If you’re a globalist, that’s just fine, but if you’re America First or you care about your own country, then it’s not fine.
What If She Wins?
A Harris victory means more of the same regarding Biden policies with even worse execution. She’s an Obama puppet. Even though Biden and Harris can’t stand each other, they both carry the Obama baton. What that means is more government dysfunction. It means more of the Green New Scam, including attacks on big oil and gas and a hold on new leases for drilling on federal lands.
It means a wider war in Ukraine with more dead Ukrainians and a risk of escalation to a nuclear war. It means higher taxes on the middle class and more regulation for small and start-up businesses. It also means slower economic growth, not by design, but as a result of excessive government debt relative to GDP.
A Harris presidency would also bring higher taxes on corporations, higher taxes on capital gains, price controls, open borders, defunding the police, ending private health insurance, and continued aid to Ukraine.
This list goes on, but no guesswork is required. This will be Bidenomics and neo-fascism on steroids.
What Investors Need to Know
The bottom line is Trump’s policies are good for U.S. companies and U.S. markets, U.S. workers, and not necessarily good for emerging markets around the world.
Here are some of the sectors that will benefit from a Trump victory tomorrow:
- Oil and natural gas drilling, production and refining
- Mining (gold, silver, copper, lithium)
- Defense (especially in contractors with good R&D programs. We need new technology, not just more of the same weapons)
- Automobile manufacturing focused more on internal combustion engines rather than electric vehicles
- Cryptocurrency plays
- Banking and finance (As the economy grows, the banks profit as intermediaries)
I would also look at sectors that benefit from lower oil and gas prices including trucking and airlines.
After taking office, Trump’s agenda will incentivize billions of dollars of investments in U.S. energy and manufacturing jobs. He will make domestic oil drilling and refining a top priority which will provide America with energy independence. This will also benefit companies (and provide more jobs) in the energy sector.
He will also eliminate the Green New Scam by reducing spending on wasteful projects like Kamala Harris’ EV mandates. This will allow automakers to shine once more by producing more automobiles with traditional internal combustion engines.
For a Harris presidency, investment winners are Big Tech, Big Pharma, China, and the Green New Scammers. Investment losers are oil and natural gas, defense, and mining. Unfortunately, none of this can be ruled out as this race will be close.
Get ready for new wars and expanded weaponization of the Department of Justice, FBI, and Department of Homeland Security. You’ll have continued open borders resulting in lower wages for all Americans. The uncontrolled influx of illegals means widespread diseases like whooping cough and tuberculosis from the unvaccinated aliens. More government censorship with the White House working hand-in-hand with Google and Meta will be the norm.
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