by Michael Nevradakis, Ph.D., Childrens Health Defense:
A study of over 12 million Americans enrolled in healthcare systems between 2011 and 2022 found a 175% increase in autism diagnoses within the full sample during the study period. The study was published Wednesday in JAMA Network Open.
One in 33 children between the ages of 5 and 8 has an autism diagnosis — a higher rate than the official figure of 1 in 36 — according to a study published Wednesday in JAMA Network Open.
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The study examined the health records of over 12 million Americans enrolled in healthcare systems between 2011 and 2022, to identify trends in the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnoses.
The authors found a 175% increase in autism diagnoses within the full sample during the study period, with the biggest increases seen among young adults, females and children in several racial and ethnic groups.
The authors — including four researchers affiliated with Kaiser Permanente and one with the Henry Ford Health System — said their results may be undercounting autism cases.
“Rates reported here may underestimate the true prevalence of ASD in adults, especially older female adults, as many would not have been screened in childhood and remain undiagnosed,” the study’s authors wrote.
The researchers suggested autism diagnoses may be on the rise due to increased advocacy and education efforts that are shattering taboos about autism. They also cited changes to diagnosis definitions and developmental screening practices, and unspecified “environmental factors” as possible contributors.
The study did not list vaccines as a possible factor.
John Gilmore, executive director of the Autism Action Network, said the study “confirms what we have seen from many other data sources: that there is an ongoing catastrophic epidemic of autism.”
However, he said, the study “brushes aside the 800-pound gorilla question of, ‘Why is the number going up?’”
Brian Hooker, Ph.D., chief scientific officer for Children’s Health Defense, said the factors highlighted by the study as likely being responsible for an increase in autism diagnoses are unlikely to have led to such a sharp rise.
“The reasons for a 175% increase in prevalence over just 11 years are stunningly ineffectual — improved diagnostics and increased awareness among females? Really?” Hooker asked.
Gilmore accused the authors of deploying “the obligatory boilerplate responses of changing diagnostic criteria and better case finding.” “As usual, this study exhibits no sense of alarm or concern about the growing number of lives crushed by this syndrome.”
According to Toby Rogers, Ph.D., a political economist whose doctoral thesis explored the regulatory history of five classes of toxicants that increase autism risk, the study’s authors “put ideology ahead of proper scientific analysis in explaining the results.”
“They likely have hundreds of variables for each patient — including how many vaccines each has received. The authors have a moral and scientific obligation to regress autism prevalence against the number of vaccines received. I believe such an analysis would show a strong correlation,” Rogers said.
The word “‘vaccine’ never appears in autism studies unless the study intends to demonstrate that vaccines do not cause autism,” Gilmore said. “No one ever suggests that a study that controls for those factors should be done, which you would think would be the immediate and obvious next step.”
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