by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:
Early voting numbers are starting to come in from all over the nation, and I am absolutely astounded by what we are witnessing so far. In previous cycles, Democrats have dominated early in-person voting and vote-by-mail, and Republicans have dominated in-person voting on the day of the election. Experts had expected to see the same pattern manifest this time around, but in many of the most important states that simply is not happening. In fact, as you will see below, there are quite a few swing states where Republicans have actually cast more votes than Democrats have. Needless to say, this is very bad news for Kamala Harris.
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Let’s start in Florida. When early in-person voting and vote-by-mail are combined, Republicans have a lead of more than 18,000 votes so far…
Republicans outnumbered Democrats in Florida in terms of early in-person voting and vote-by-mail combined as of Monday night.
At around 9:02 p.m. Eastern, Republicans led Democrats by 18,147 votes in terms of both early person voting and vote-by-mail combined.
When evaluating in-person early voting alone, Republicans lead by 93,210 votes, while Democrats edge out Republicans by 75,101 votes with vote-by-mail, specifically.
Regardless, at this point, Republicans have the overall edge.
This isn’t supposed to happen.
During these early stages, Democrats are supposed to be casting more votes than Republicans virtually everywhere in the entire country.
So this is big news.
Even more importantly, Republicans are currently outvoting Democrats in the critical swing state of Georgia…
In Georgia, 49 percent of all early votes have come from Republicans, while 46 percent have come from Democrats.
We don’t know who these people are voting for, but these early numbers do give us an indication of which party is doing better at getting out the vote.
In Arizona, Republicans have built up quite a sizable lead…
In Arizona, registered Republican voters are slightly outperforming Democrats, 44 percent to 35 percent.
And the numbers that we are getting out of Nevada are shocking pundits across the political spectrum…
BREAKING: Nevada Republicans NOW LEAD THE EARLY VOTE, with mail included. Absolutely unprecedented in a presidential year.
Republicans: 96,858
Democrats: 88,983
The Harris campaign is absolutely counting on Nevada.
If they lose there, they are going to be in an enormous amount of trouble.
And could an upset be brewing in Virginia?
It is being reported that Republicans have cast more early in-person ballots in Virginia than Democrats have…
Republicans may be eclipsing Democrats in early in-person voting this year in Virginia, though Democrats appear to be outperforming Republicans in submitting mail-in ballots, according to data compiled by the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project.
Just two weeks out from the presidential election, Republicans are likely to have cast 46.5% of early in-person ballots, while Democrats likely account for 45.5%.
Of course Democrats have a big lead in mail-in ballots in Virginia, but Republicans will have a huge turnout on November 5th.
If Virginia ends up in Trump’s column, there is no way that Harris can win.
Overall, the early voting numbers are telling us a very clear story.
As Mark Halperin has explained, if current trends continue we could know who is going to win even before we get to November 5th…
“If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that’s a big if, we’ll almost certainly know before Election Day who’s going to win the election … Make no mistake, if these numbers hold up in the states where we can understand even partially what the data is like, we’ll know that Donald Trump’s going to be president on Election Day … It’s extraordinarily important, and we got to track that day to day,” Halperin said. “That’s more important than the polls right now. It’s more important than almost anything because it’s giving us insight into a variety of factors that are accounting for a Republican overperformance by various metrics in the early voting in the battleground states.”
He is right.
Early voting numbers are far more important than poll numbers.
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