by Martin Armstrong, Armstrong Economics:
The U.S. economy added fewer-than-expected new jobs last month because most economists still refuse to comprehend that there is such a thing as the business cycle. Here we have the Economic Confidence Model I explained, which I discovered while researching at the Firestone Library at Princeton University. That is NOT included in Socrates, in which I merely taught Socrates how to identify cycles, let it go forward without human intervention, and come back to tell me what it found.
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Socrates agreed with the Economic Confidence Model that the economy would turn down in 2024 going into 2025. This Jobs Number came with big downward revisions to recent summer tallies, suggesting that the labor market if cooling and that this is likely to support the case for a larger Federal Reserve rate. What is stunning is that these people cheer on rate cuts, but the rate cuts come ONLY with recessionary trends. This is the second straight month of downward numbers since the ECM turned in May.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that a net 142,000 new jobs were created in August, a number well above the downward revised July total of 89,000 but still well south of this year’s monthly average of around 200,000. At the end of the day, it will most likely be revised to be lower than July. The low may not be seen until the first quarter of 2025. After that, we must be concerned about war.
While the Computer has projected that Trump should win the 2024 election, he added RFK, and now Musk has to have Washington up in arms. The Neocons will fight for their life, and everything is on the table. These people do not care about the country, the economy, or the people.
The other scenario that concerns me is that Putin is the only person holding back World War III. With this insane invasion of Russia by Ukraine at the direction of NATO, the intended consequence, or pretend unintended consequence, is the overthrow of Putin by the hardline Russian Neocons. This year, 2024, is a Directional Change for Russia. Even if electing Trump with RFK, we could still have a war if they overthrow Putin.
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