by John Kudla, American Thinker:
The 2024 election is just a few weeks away. This means we are nearing the end of election propaganda, commercials, gaslighting, and talking heads offering their biased opinions on anything that might give their candidate an edge. That goes for me, too.
The turmoil caused by the Democrat coup against the Artful Dodger, Joe Biden, and the RFK Jr. endorsement of Donald Trump has mostly passed.
My take on Kamala Harris is she is an attractive, well-credentialed woman with a bubbly, outgoing personality. She appears to have used her personality to attract the attention of powerful Democrat politicians, who have been instrumental in helping her win elections.
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Otherwise, she seems to be short on abilities. Despite having a law degree, she is famous for uttering incomprehensible word salads and appears incapable of explaining simple concepts. In a now-famous interview where she was asked how she would lower prices for Americans, her response was to riff about being a middle-class kid. Uh, right. Nothing to see there.
Despite all of this, numerous polls have Harris ahead nationally and in several of the battleground states. The Real Clear Politics national average has her ahead by 2 points.
As I mentioned in a previous post, much of the Harris polling lead is contrived. There are two reasons for this, one intentional and the other unintentional. Most polling organizations are tied to either colleges or the liberal news media. Like most left-wingers, they lean toward Kamala and may even believe Trump is Hitler. Wouldn’t you oversample Democrats or ghost a poll to help elect Kamala or defeat Hitler?
The unintentional oversampling is mainly due to non-response bias produced by societal and technical changes. This means liberals are more likely to be included in polls than conservatives because conservatives get skipped over or elect not to participate. For example, online polling favors people who are online. This is mainly younger voters, who tend to be more liberal.
On the social side, many left-wingers regard working-class folks and Trump supporters as evil or stupid, or both. Even before the election of Biden and Harris in 2020, this attitude had infiltrated government agencies, the school systems via the teacher’s unions, and more. If you don’t agree with the left’s climate agenda, their LGBTQ agenda, the teacher’s unions, or have a problem with illegal immigration, you could be investigated by the FBI as a domestic terrorist. Under those circumstances, why risk answering a poll?
In the 2020 election, the average poll overestimated the Democrat vote by roughly 4%. Later, a group of polling companies tried to discover why this happened. They did a monthslong survey in Wisconsin to find conservative voters and determine how they differed from those polled using standard polling techniques. Their conclusion was that low-propensity conservative voters were there. Unfortunately, the type of in-depth polling required to include them could not be deployed during an election because of the time, money, and effort involved.
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