by Peter Schiff, Schiff Gold:
The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).
The data below looks at contract delivery where the ownership of physical metal changes hands within CME vaults. It also shows data that details the movement of metal in and out of CME vaults. It is very possible that if there is a run on the dollar, and a flight into gold, this is the data that will show early warning signs.
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Gold
September is a minor delivery month for gold. The total metal delivered was the highest since March of 2024 and shows a positive trend moving up.
Figure: 1 Recent like-month delivery volume
The high delivery volume occurred despite almost zero net-new contracts. This is when contracts open mid-month for immediate delivery. As shown below, the latest month is the lowest going back to 2022.
Figure: 2 Cumulative Net New Contracts
Gold inventory levels remain very low. The Comex has been unable to rebuild their inventory which could be creating the upward pressure on gold recently. With little physical stock available combined with more investors wanting physical metal, there is clearly a supply/demand mismatch.
Figure: 3 Inventory Data
October is a strange month for gold. It is neither a major month (where open interest reaches +400k contracts) nor a minor month (where open interest is typically around 5k-10k at peak). This October has been more than double the Open Interest amount from last October (see red and purple line). This means that as we approach the delivery window, Open Interest is at 36.9k with three days to go. To compare to last year, with 3 days to go, Open Interest was at 18k. This could be a sign of a very large delivery month (for October) which would continue to support and even push up the gold price. Despite the big run in gold, if physical supply cannot keep up with demand, then prices will continue moving higher.
