by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:
Every month, it is almost always the same story. The government releases a number that indicates that the U.S. economy has been creating plenty of “jobs”, and then later on that number is dramatically revised lower. But by the time it is revised lower, nobody really cares anymore. The fake numbers that are initially released month after month have given the American people the impression that the economy is performing far better than it actually is. Now we are about to get another major revision to the employment numbers which only happens once per year…
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Once a year, the BLS benchmarks the March payrolls level to a more accurate but less timely data source called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is based on state unemployment insurance tax records and covers nearly all US jobs. The release of the latest QCEW report in June already hinted at weaker payroll gains last year.
On Wednesday, everyone is expecting that we will be told that hundreds of thousands of fake “jobs” that were originally reported never actually existed at all…
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated — about 50,000 a month.
While JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasters see a decline of about 360,000, Goldman Sachs indicates it could be as large as a million.
Why don’t they just try to give us an accurate number in the first place?
By now, everybody pretty much realizes that the initial monthly employment numbers are usually grossly overstated.
So why not just tell us the truth?
Of course telling us the truth would destroy the carefully crafted illusions that they have worked so hard to create.
Even though large corporations are conducting mass layoffs all over the nation, we are supposed to believe that everything is just fine.
Unfortunately, we have reached a point where even the official government numbers are starting to show signs of trouble. It takes about 150,000 new jobs each month just to keep up with population growth, and the initial number that we were given for last month was well below that level…
Employers added 114,000 jobs last month, which was far below the Dow Jones estimate of 185,000.
The unemployment rate also edged higher to 4.3 percent – the highest level since October 2021.
It should be obvious to everyone that more Americans are unemployed these days.
In fact, most of you probably know someone personally that is looking for a new job right now.
According to a survey that was recently conducted by the New York Federal Reserve, an all-time record high 28.4 percent of all U.S. adults are currently looking for work…
The New York Federal Reserve’s latest poll of consumers found 28.4% of respondents were looking for a job — the highest reading since March 2014 and up from 19.4% a year ago. That includes both individuals already out of a job and ones currently employed but seeking new roles.
The readings, from the New York Fed’s thrice-annual Survey of Consumer Expectations Labor Market Survey, add to evidence that the U.S. economic outlook is worsening, even as some economists dial back their odds of a recession.
A 9 percent increase in one year is absolutely terrible.
Why aren’t more people talking about this?
We are definitely moving in the wrong direction very rapidly, and many are concerned that this could have troubling implications for the financial markets. If the employment revision that we get on Wednesday is large enough, it could potentially spark another round of selling on Wall Street…
While the stock market has now recovered, a data revision showing a large decline could reignite fears that the economy is headed for a downturn.
‘Markets, having recently experienced a growth scare that led to concerns that the Fed is behind the curve, will be monitoring Wednesday’s release of the benchmark revision to see if the market’s initial reaction was, in fact, correct,’ Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, told Bloomberg.
It is getting very difficult for even the most blind optimists to deny where things are heading.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has been falling for 29 months in a row.
You would think that just about everyone would be getting the message by now.
At the same time that economic activity is slowing down, most Americans are finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet due to our seemingly endless cost of living crisis.
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