by Martin Jay, Strategic Culture:
The recent move by Ukraine to take Kursk was bold. It’s hardly surprising that media in the west have blown it up to be bigger than it really is though, given that they have been starved of positive chaff to spin for months for their NATO clients and so it comes as little surprise that it will run for days. But of course, the real test of the move comes in the days ahead. Taking a small enclave of Kursk with little or no resistance from Russian forces there – who are not battled hardened top notch – was hardly the Hollywood epic that the West is presenting it as. Taking it is one thing. Keeping it is a whole new matter.
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Zelensky may well have taken the Kursk option to try and draw Russian troops out of the Donbas or from a small enclave on the Ukrainian side nearby that was taken recently. Militarily of course this makes sense and most analysts present this as the main point of the exercise. Whatever Putin does, it will be a draw from other resources in other places and so he strikes the Russian leader hard with one blow.
Politically also, Zelensky knows that the pressure will be on Putin to do something to settle the Kursk issue. Russians did not think, when they were given the picture of Ukraine and Moscow’s objectives, that it would involve a spill over war into their own country. And so that merely piles on the pressure for Putin to deal with the Kursk “provocation”.
But there are other factors which Zelensky has on his mind, behind the Kursk ruse. The Ukrainian president, for the first time, has reached out to Putin and his officials recently when he invited Russia to a peace conference in November. This is a first of its kind, in that the initiative is actually Ukraine’s and that Putin is invited. Clearly, Zelensky believes that he needs to make a move before the U.S. elections are over, given that a Trump victory might push him to give up much more than his political expediency will allow. Having Kursk in his war chest will be very useful, not because of the tiny amount of land that Ukraine army actually has, but for the symbolism, as a card to play when negotiations actually start.
And yet this move comes with a high price which indicates also the level of desperation that Zelensky is in and we can, arguably, attest that Russia didn’t see it coming. If Zelensky loses the Kursk patch, then the humiliation and the loss of support from the military and its families will be unprecedented. If Kursk backfires, it might well cost him everything. The risks of course are not only with Zelensky alone but weigh heavily on the West also. For Western elites to goad him on and then congratulate him is both foolish and reckless. For Putin to refuse to be baited into a full-out war with NATO one can only comment that his patience is not unlimited – especially when now his political élan has taken a knock. There have been many moments in the past couple of years when this has happened before and he always survives the rough and tumble of Russian politics. But this time Zelensky will have to be seen to be paying the price for poking the Russian bear in the cage once too hard.
There is also another important development which is running concurrent to these events which is the role that Belarus could play in the coming months. Ukraine has repeatedly operated drones in the country’s airspace and been warned of the consequences. Recently tanks from Belarus were sent to the border, cranking up tensions even more if Ukraine angers Minsk once more. Zelensky certainly likes to skate on thin ice but presumably the two F16s which he has taken delivery of will amuse him no end. His own propaganda team are filming the two jets flying in tandem all over the country, presumably with two retired U.S. pilots in the cockpit, and dumping it all on social media to give the impression there is an air force made up of these American fighters. Hilarious. Expect more smoke and mirrors as we get closer to November.
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