by Martin Armstrong, Armstrong Economics:
We saw it happen first in California. People could not handle the restrictive policies during the pandemic, which was worsened by the drastic increase in taxes and crime. Americans are fleeing blue states in droves – precisely why we cannot forecast real estate as whole for the United Stated. Recent data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) indicates that Americans want out of Illinois.
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Over 87,000 left Illinois last year, as did the $10 billion they were providing the state in income. The IRS believes the state has lost $47.5 billion in adjusted gross income over the last six years due to the blue state exodus. This trend has only accelerated due to recent policies. “We’re not bringing in the best and the brightest in many cases to the state of Illinois; we’re actually pushing them out of the state with horrible policies and we’re back filling it with folks that want services,” State Sen. Andrew Chesney, R-Freeport reported, as 177,000 new incomers entered the state while 264,000 abandoned it during the same period of 2021 to 2022.
We are witnessing a changing dynamic among blue states. The smart money has already fled where possible. Corporations are fleeing as well, moving to states that are business-friendly. The crime in Illinois continues to multiply although prosecutions are declining. Who would want to live in such a place other than those receiving government aid who are already part of the problem? I sympathize with those who are rooted in blue states be it for family or business.
You have an incoming number of people on handouts and the tax money fleeing. State budgets will not be able to maintain this imbalance. I reported how crime in Chicago alone rose 82% in a two-year period. They have successfully defunded the police and created a haven for criminals. When we held our seminar in London there was a giant advertisement telling Londoners to visit the Windy City of Chicago. Why on Earth would tourism dollars go to a city that resemble a third world nation?
Experiments for 15-minute cities and the Great Reset will first happen in soon to be abandoned cities like Chicago. Chicago has already attempted to implement state-run grocery stores because theft was so rampant that businesses could not remain open and profitable. The crime is spilling over into the suburbs. The politicians and lawmakers believe that successful individuals should subsidize the lives of those who chose not to participate in society.
We are witnessing a further divide in America. Senator Chesney was not wrong when he said that socialistic policies are attracting the wrong people to blue states like Illinois. The taxpayers are fleeing, and those on handouts are coming in, aiding in the explosion of state budgets. This is precisely why California issued an exit tax to ensure anyone fleeing is still on the hook to fund the failing state. In contrast, red states are experiencing a growing population and its real estate market is rising. The blue states are soon to experience a buyer’s market, which may not be the case in many red states. Looking at Illinois, 31,600 people who fled in 2022 went to Florida, bringing with them $4.1 billion. We are seeing what happens when politics divides the people, state laws hold more importance than federal ones, and it becomes a tale of two nations.
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