by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk:
Polls suggest Kamala is doing slightly better than Biden. However, the whole deck has been reshuffled and it contains a big number of jokers.
What Polls Say About Harris vs. Trump
The Wall Street Journal comments on What Polls Say About Harris vs. Trump
Many polls in recent weeks showed Kamala Harris performing slightly better than President Biden in a hypothetical Trump-Harris race. A Wall Street Journal poll after Biden’s debate with former President Donald Trump didn’t test a matchup between Trump and Harris, but it did find that 35% of voters viewed the vice president favorably and 58% viewed her unfavorably—similar numbers to the president at the time. A CBS-YouGov poll estimated Trump to be leading Harris by three points and Biden by five. A Reuters-Ipsos poll last week showed Harris and Trump neck-and-neck.
TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/
A New York Times/Siena survey taken before the recent attempted assassination of Trump showed Harris polling better than Biden against Trump in two critical states for Democrats. In Pennsylvania, Harris trailed Trump by one point, and in Virginia, Harris stood five points above Trump. A national NBC News poll, also taken before the assassination attempt, showed both Biden and Harris trailing Trump by two points. Bettors, meanwhile still see a high chance of a Trump victory, betting prices show.
Start All Over
There’s not much in those polls other than a bit of confirmation that Harris-Anyone will be better than Biden-Harris.
But we probably won’t have a real clue for 7-10 days.
Pollsters were scrambling to conduct polls in the wake of the assassination. All of those polls are now useless before they are even published.
But they will be published, likely showing a bounce for Trump in the wake of the assassination, then the convention.
The Rational Choice
Nate Silver commented Biden and Democrats Make the Rational Choice.
The top half of that post is public and worth a read. Silver commented on his biggest mistake in 2016.
Also, Silver’s opening comment rings true “They’re probably still underdogs against Trump, but Biden dropping out improves their odds.“
Good News for Democrats: Throw the Polls Out, Start All Over
Yesterday, I commented Good News for Democrats: Throw the Polls Out, Start All Over
I repeat that message today as stale polls post-assassination and post-convention trickle in.
Whatever those polls say, toss them. But it won’t portend well for Trump if somehow they are worse for him.
Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
Yesterday, I commented In the Wake Biden’s Campaign Exit, Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
Here is Trump’s comment on Truth Social after Biden dropped out.
“Crooked Joe Biden is the Worst President, by far, in the History of our Nation. He has done everything possible to destroy our Country, from our Southern Border, to Energy Dominance, National Security, International Standing, and so much more. He was annihilated in an Earth Shattering Debate, and now the Corrupt and Radical Democrats are throwing him overboard. He was not fit to serve from the very beginning, but the people around him lied to America about his Complete and Total Mental, Physical, and Cognitive Demise. Whoever the Left puts up now will just be more of the same. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Another Lost Opportunity
A reader friend of mine commented …
Your headline has it exactly right. Trump just can’t help himself.
It’s another lost opportunity to be gracious.
That social media comment and the recent convention show Trump has a hard time grasping the idea that to improve your odds of winning elections you have to win over people who are not with you now.
Another reader challenged me to take Kamala straight up in a bet. I told the reader he had reading comprehension issues.
I still expect Trump to win, if for no other reason than recession trumps foot-in-mouth disease.
The Deck Contains Several Jokers
- The economy
- Trump’s propensity to stick his foot in his mouth
- Many uncertainties surrounding Kamala Harris
Unfortunately, number two appears to be a perpetual given. One might have hoped that J.D. Vance or his campaign or a bit of common sense would prevail, especially after Trump himself said he would tone things down.
But no.
Such behavior cost Trump the election in 2020 as well as a Senate majority. But hey, believe what you want.
It’s The Economy Stupid!
Ultimately, I expect Trump will win no matter what ridiculous things he says because the economy is deteriorating rapidly.
