by Martin Armstrong, Armstrong Economics:
The Rassemblement National (RN), which the press calls the far-right in France, has become the ant-war party with hopes of displacing Macron as prime minister after France’s upcoming parliamentary. In 2022, Marine Le Pen doubled down on her criticism of Europe in support of the Ukrainian war and counteroffensive as tensions within the Russian government were rising. Le Pen saw through this warmongering and was not deflected from her line of consistent opposition to economic sanctions against Russia and deliveries of heavy weapons to Ukraine.
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It is important to clarify what is at stake. The government has most of the power only on the DOMESTIC FRONT. Macron may be counting on the Rassemblement National (RN) to accelerate the deficit reduction plans by putting the spendthrift in that position. He thinks that the people would revolt against the far-right for deficit reductions.
Nevertheless, President Macron remains the head of the military and wields influence abroad – not parliament. However, the division of power when it comes to FOREIGN POLICY is very murky, which can become an issue for France’s position with respect to Russia and Ukraine. Macron has been trying to reestablish the de Gaullist Dream of France as the leader of Europe. He has even presented himself as the leader and kingmaker of Europe while simultaneously trying to assert France’s role in every crisis from Ukraine to the Middle East. This was even begin his meeting with Putin to try to raise the image of France as the key player in this geopolitical game of chance. All of this has taken place despite Paris’ ultimate influence being quite limited in such matters.
When peace was unpopular in Europe, Macron flipped his position and called for World War III. Macron appears to be a geopolitical pendulum swinging back and forth between two extremes and never actually taking a centrist position.
Macron will have to deal with the new parliament for at least a year, after which he can call another snap election. Make no mistake, Macron won a second mandate in April 2022 and is president for three more years until 2027. Neither parliament nor the government can force him out before that. Therein lies the problem. He may be moving toward creating some false flag to justify entering World War III all to retain power since his position is anti-Russia and pro-World War III.
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