by Peter Schiff, Schiff Gold:
While in office, Trump blamed the Fed for tightening monetary policy. Now members of Trump’s team allegedly plan to give a re-elected Trump more power over the Fed, igniting panic from mainstream economists about a politicized Fed. Our guest commentator explains why the real risk, from the establishment’s perspective, is not that Trump will turn the Fed into a political organization but that he will expose that it already is one.
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The following article was originally published by the Mises Institute. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.
Discourse about the Federal Reserve is frequently full of myths, dishonest framing, and outright lies. Listen to a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell or read an article from a major outlet’s lead Fed correspondent and you’re bound to hear at least a few. For instance, it’s common for the financial press to characterize the Fed’s current conundrum as “walking a tightrope.”
It’s said that the Fed is working to guide the economy along without tipping it over into either high inflation on one side or a recession on the other. The last couple years, we’re told, saw the economy wobble too far toward the inflation side, with the Fed now attempting to pull the economy back to the thin line of stability without tipping over too far and plunging into a recession.
But anybody who actually understands what causes recessions can tell that this framing is, at best, incredibly misleading. The Fed doesn’t prevent recessions, it directly causes them. These days the tightrope analogy contributes to the myth that, while difficult, a recession is possible to avoid. It isn’t. All the Fed can do is delay and amplify the painful correction that earlier monetary policy made inevitable.
Another myth that has been getting more attention in past weeks is that the Fed as an organization is separate from, above, or independent from politics.
The attention follows a Wall Street Journal report alleging that members of former president Donald Trump’s team are drawing up plans to give the president more power over the Fed should Trump win the election this November. Reporters cite an internal ten-page document that argues the president should be consulted on interest-rate decisions and have the authority to fire Fed chairs before their term is up. These plans sparked panic about a politicized Fed and provoked responses from several concerned economists.
So, a bunch of politicians created an organization and consolidated its power in Washington, DC, where a committee of government officials appointed and confirmed by politicians directs monetary policy for the entire country according to policy goals defined earlier by other politicians. And we’re supposed to consider this organization to be nonpolitical.
Moreover, the idea that the changes Trump’s team might be considering would represent a categorical change to the structure of the Federal Reserve is crazy. Fed chairs already consult with current presidential administrations through the Treasury Secretary. It’s not as if the Fed is isolated from the ambitions of the executive branch.
The real risk, from the establishment’s perspective, is not that Trump will turn the Fed into a political organization but that he will expose the fact that it already is one.
