by Brian C. Joondeph, American Thinker:
The 2024 presidential election is five months away.
Corporate media is calling it a “tight race.” It probably is, as have been most recent presidential elections, but what do the polls say?
Remember this caveat about polls: They are a snapshot in time, reflecting the views of a tiny fraction of a percent of the population, registered or likely voters, and are fluid depending on the news and issues of the day. Current events rapidly change, as do voter sentients, and voter preferences may shift over the next five months.
That being said, recent polls are popping for former President Donald Trump.
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For Trump supporters, Rasmussen Reports’s May 3 survey results are encouraging, with this headline, “Trump now +10 over Biden.”
Rasmussen surveys likely U.S. voters, a more reliable sampling compared to simply registered voters, or even residents, meaning whoever answers the pollster’s phone call. In the 2020 presidential election, only two thirds of eligible voters submitted ballots, so likely voters are a more meaningful sample compared to registered voters.
In a three-way contest between Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, 46% of likely voters would choose Trump, 36% Biden, and 9% Kennedy.
In any election, turnout is important, which hinges on voter enthusiasm. Trump has an advantage here too with 59% of his voters saying they are very excited about the upcoming election compared to only 50% of Biden’s voters.
Similarly, 60% of Republicans and only 45% of Democrats are excited about this year’s presidential election. Enthusiasm drives turnout.
Unlike in virtually all past presidential elections, both candidates have a record to run on as presidents. How are they doing at similar points in their respective presidencies? There is a simple way to ask this question.
Are you better off today compared to four years ago? The answer for most Americans is apparent, and Trump needs to make this case loudly and frequently. As do Congressional Republicans, who are mostly afraid of their own shadows.
Lest you think Rasmussen is an outlier, CNN confirms. In their recent poll among registered voters, Trump’s support sits at 49% compared to Biden at 43%.
Furthermore, 55% of Americans now see Trump’s presidency as a success, while only 39% see Biden’s term as a success in the CNN poll.
What issues are important to voters?
According to CNN, 65% of voters “call the economy extremely important to their vote for president.” This compares to only 40% in 2020 and 46% in 2016 who felt that way.
“It’s the economy, stupid,” as James Carville said during Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign.
For those voters saying the economy is “deeply important,” Trump has a huge 62% to 30% lead over Biden.
What about likeability? Per the CNN poll, impressions of both current candidates are mostly negative. Some 58% of voters view Biden unfavorably compared to 55% for Trump.
For voters who like neither candidate, in choosing between the two: “They break for Trump, 43% to 31%.”
Rasmussen Reports has another way of comparing favorability between the two candidates, which is their Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Comparing the exact same point in their respective presidencies, on May 17, 2020, Trump’s total approval was 49% compared to Biden on May 9, 2024, at only 43%.
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