No One Has Really Grokked How Big The Suez/Houthi Gambit Is

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by Tom Luongo, Tom Luongo:

We’ve had a lot of foreshadowing of the Suez Canal being a major hotspot for conflict over the past couple of years. Think back to the Evergreen beaching itself in the canal in 2021. Everyone is just now waking up to the idea that global shipping is at risk here.

This Twitter thread (by a self-professed moron who, IMO, seems to have a good grasp on things) is representative of the level of analysis being put forth by people still in love with the US Navy’s ability to force project around the world. He’s just waking up to the importance of this situation but he hasn’t picked up on the nuance of it from the other side of the battlefield.

TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/

In order to set the stage properly I’m going to have to go back in time. So, let’s start with October 7th and the attack on Israel by Hamas. In the October issue of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter I laid out why I thought everyone had an incentive to allow and/or instigate that event.

The October Setup

So, here’s the backdrop for Davos and the US/UK:

Now, if you are a cornered old money globalist oligarch with your finger on the pulse of these events…

Then, you are seeing:

  1. The project in Ukraine hanging by a thread as European and American support wanes at every level just below the unelected leadership.
  2. The ECB failing to hold the line on rising bond yields to stave off a banking crisis.
  3. US Yield Curve blowing out on the long end, giving Yellen no good options for funding the current budget deficit or for rolling over existing debt, much of which is due in 2024.
  4. German state elections deeply embarrass the ruling coalition in Hesse and Bavaria as well as the CDU/CSU who lost significant votes to Alternative for Germany (AfD) in CSU stronghold Bavaria.
  5. Polish elections forcing the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) out of power despite tough words about Ukrainian refugees and shaking Germany down for WWII reparations.
  6. The BRICS adding five nations which give them control over major trade routes into and out of Europe, including, but not limited to, the Suez Canal.
  7. The US geopolitical position in the Middle East degrading as Saudi Arabia sides with Russia and Iran on every issue.
  8. Iran becoming an integral partner in the burgeoning Asian integration on trade and policy.

Would you not conclude that time had run out, and upsetting the game board in some major way was your best, if not only, move?

Now, from the other side we have the following circumstances:

If this [revealing the depravity of Neocon hatred of Arabs] was Iran’s intended goal, then mission accomplished.

It also implies that they are ready and willing to open up the entire can of worms across the Middle East in order to bring the Arab tribes together to further their regional ambitions. And there won’t be a T.E. Lawrence coming to bring them back into the British fold this time.

Because Israel’s response here will likely preclude any of them being able to stand aside and let Israel just wipe out the civilians in Gaza, even if secretly they despise Hamas as much as the Israelis do.

So, if you’re Iran and you see:

  1. Weak US leadership in Biden and a vacant speaker
  2. Support for Ukraine failing rapidly.
  3. The Arab oil states standing firm with Russia athwart US/EU sanctions.
  4. China investing in Syria’s reconstruction.
  5. Turkey openly attacking US-backed Kurdish SDF forces over Syrian oil fields.
  6. A cynical landgrab by Azerbaijan to break up the International North-South transport corridor in Armenia
  7. Russia returning to the European gas market via Turkey
  8. Increased influence regionally having re-opened diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.

Wouldn’t you do something to upset the status quo and force a choice on the US but also the rest of the Arab world?

The initial US response was to quickly move in with massive naval force to signal our support of Israel and also to ‘warn Iran.’ Martin Armstrong immediately brought up the point of this being a trap for the US. The thread linked above has the current disposition of US naval forces deployed around the Arabian peninsula.

The Thucydides Trap is one where a dominant power is provoked into a response against a rising power over an issue that it has to respond to to prove it still has that supremacy but they cannot win. This is exactly what the rising power wants the dominant power to do.

The BRICS’ adding six pivotal countries in August, as I said then, was the point of this year’s Summit, not the introduction of some gold-backed BRICS coin.

This is what Armstrong brought up, the possibility of Russia/Iran/China springing a Thucydides Trap on the US over Israel.

Why the Yemen War is a War in Name Only

So, how does the Houthi attacks on global shipping fit into this?

The same way that “Iranian Militias” have stepped up their attacks on US forces stationed in Syria and Iraq. The goal is to push the US out of the Middle East and redraw the map potentially undoing both the Balfour Declaration and the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement.

Israel has a choice, the Balfour Declaration is still negotiable, depending on their actions going forward.

Skyes-Picot, however, is not. The Arabs and the Persians are tired of the conflicts the West flares up over old British-drawn borders.

Everyone makes the mistake of thinking that the US backs Israel because of “The Jews.” Once that shibboleth is invoked all rational discussion is shut down. It’s done so to keep us from looking at the far more important thing at stake. That is literally the bullshit cover story for British strategic analysis of the world map from the perspective of a “former” maritime empire.

Read More @ TomLuongo.me

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