by Daisy Luther, The Organic Prepper:
Assumptions.
We make them all the time. Mostly unconscious, like the grocery store will be open, fully stocked of bread, milk, toilet paper, and our favorite ice cream. The gas station will be up and running to gas up our vehicles and maybe get a hot cup of coffee or a fat pill (doughnut).
Then there are other conscious assumptions we make about things, like our retirement accounts doing well, plenty of money available for presents under the Christmas tree, or not having to resort to using a credit card to make the monthly bills.
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Some of our assumptions are made based on historical facts. Others from more recent events or experiences. Then, we also have unconscious bias assumptions.
When it comes to the SHTF, I think we have some that are quite logical or common sense based. Others – well, I’ve read a few that are really out there – such as Army-grown lab attack dogs trained to eat our children.
Yeah. Really.
Based on several of Selco’s articles and some other books on various topics, historical and recent events are some assumptions I have made. Your mileage may vary. This is not a complete list, as I am sure I am forgetting more than a few.
One thing I want to mention is that OP commenter Backwoods Squirrel wrote “Just understand that what works in one area won’t necessarily work in another.”
He was referencing the differences between the Balkan War Selco went through to what SHTF could look like here in the US. There could be similarities, and there could be differences between states, regions, or even towns.
From Taylor to Tina. Or, From Rule of Law to Thunderdome.
How fast we go from Shake It Off to Thunderdome is an interesting assumption.
I have read some who think it will be nearly instantaneous or overnight. Others say several days to weeks or somewhere in between.
There are some more recent events we can look to as examples. Hurricane Katrina. The lawlessness some major cities are currently experiencing.
Selco noted more than a few times in his writings how by the time they realized that SHTF, it was too late. Where they were is where they were. From panic-buying at the grocery store to outright looting. From civil normalcy to stabbings with no EMS or LEOs responding.
It happened slowly.
Then suddenly.
Rule of Law (ROL) broke down. As a society, we are only as good as the laws written and those who follow those laws. Once ROL is gone, chaos and anarchy rule.
It is only with the threat of punishment and to a degree, the social contract that a society functions. When ROL has broken down, those who would enforce those laws are just as helpless as the rest of us to the chaos and anarchy. In that case, I cannot blame Law Enforcement Officers (LEOs) any more than I could anyone else. They are just as fearful for their lives and the lives of their families as everyone else.
Another takeaway Selco mentions is the need for family or community. He notes it takes a group to maintain not only physical security from invaders but also mental security.
Selco also mentions those who have the numbers and the firepower to control territory or parts of the black market. These could be in the form of gangs, warlords, or tribes. What we may see as a neighborhood now when things are normal, maybe the next tribe or gang, depending on how you look at it.
Hey! Who Turned Off The Lights? Or, When The Grid Is Gone.
This is one assumption most make and agree on. If our electrical grid were to go down for a prolonged period of time – weeks, months, or even longer – we would have some serious problems. Some think violence would be the biggest cause of death in a SHTF situation. Historically (and even to this day globally), sanitation issues have been some of the biggest causes of death. Grid-down, the toilets do not flush, and nothing comes out of the tap. Selco wrote an article about water during the Balkan War, and I wrote about it with my experiences in Afghanistan and my own water experiment.
Other issues are heating, cooling, and cooking.
Depending on your location and the time of year, all three present their own issues. Obviously, heating in the far North in the winter can be an issue for those who do not heat with wood. In the South, cooling is its own issue during the summer. Most people would be able to cope, although it may not be comfortable. In both cases it is the very young and the very old would be the most vulnerable.
Cooking over a wood fire is doable. But first, you need wood for the fire.
Then you need food.
Grid down, unless you have a generator, your perishables in the fridge and freezer are only going to last a few days at most. Even then, you are dependent on the fuel supply. For those in the North, in the winter, nature is your freezer. I have done it before.
What is that smell? Or Sanitation issues.
Sanitation is the one of the biggest causes of death globally, even to this day. Selco’s article on the topic highlights exactly the issues that happen when the power goes out and the tap no longer flows, the toilet no longer flushes. I saw it happen in Afghanistan in the midst of a drought when a large number of people gathered around a single source of water and someone defecated in it. The result was a cholera outbreak. If it was not for a humanitarian aid effort of hydration solutions/salts, a lot of people would have died.
In the comments section of that article, a number of people noted how the sewage system would back up if the power was out. Unable to flush, where would people defecate? As it has been noted, we Americans are something of a lazy bunch. If you think San Fran is bad now, imagine lots of people just defecating in a bucket and tossing it out of a seven-story (or larger) apartment building. And no one is going to clean it up. Not my job, right? In one of the comments, someone mentioned in the past there would be people who would collect waste buckets and dispose of them pre-modern sanitation methods. Who is going to volunteer for that job, and what are the rest of us going to pay them?
Hey! Where Did Everyone Go? Or, The Mass Die Off.
In the comments section, The Lone Canadian mentioned the EMP Commission, and in the event of an EMP attack, an estimated 80-90% mass die-off could happen within 4 to 6 weeks. When I first read the estimation of a die-off, it was too surreal. Think about it: go to a mall, a big box store, the grocery store, and count off 8 or 9 of Americans dead. The 9th or 10th is a survivor. Then I got to thinking of how dependent we are on our Just-In-Time/Business As Usual (JIT/BAU) paradigm.
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