by Richard Eldred, Daily Sceptic:
The National Security Risk Assessment reads like a doomsayer’s checklist, featuring nearly 90 major threats facing Britain, including AI, drone attacks and the possibility of a future pandemic worse than Covid. inews has the story.
There is up to a one in four chance of another pandemic occurring within five years, according to new Government analysis of potential major threats facing the U.K.
The National Security Risk Assessment, which weighs up almost 90 potential vulnerabilities, was declassified by ministers on Thursday.
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It said that artificial intelligence (AI), drone attacks on critical infrastructure and the prospect of future disruption to energy supplies by a hostile Russian regime are among the main threats facing Britain.
The register spelt out a worst-case scenario for each threat and calculated both an impact and a likelihood rating for them occurring.
The most severe threats were defined as having a “catastrophic” impact. They include the potential for a future pandemic, which was given a likelihood rating of 5% to 25%, meaning there could be as high as a one in four chance of another major outbreak occurring by 2028.
The register said a fresh pandemic may be worse than Covid and could affect half of the population, with an estimated 1.34 million people needing hospital treatment and up to potential 840,000 deaths.
Other “catastrophic” events include large-scale chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks and the failure of U.K. electricity transmission, which were each given a “remote” 1% to 5% chance of happening.
The Cabinet Office said it has published the material to help Britain to prepare for “worst-case scenarios” rather than “sweep them under the carpet”.
The register, which is the first of its kind drawn up since 2020, includes the first mention of threats directly related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, such as the risk of cyber or drone attacks.
It also detailed the threat posed by Russia over gas supplies to Western Europe. It comes after President Vladimir Putin triggered an energy crisis last year as European countries scrambled to find alternative supplies in the face of sanctions on the Kremlin.
The dossier also warned of the threat to underwater telecommunications cables that power the internet following reports that these have already been probed by Russian vessels.
It said a worst-case scenario would see “considerable disruption to the internet”, including essential infrastructure such as financial services and payment systems going offline.
The Government report also includes an assessment of a “miscalculation” by another country with nuclear weapons, such as India or Pakistan.
It said this would likely be triggered by the false belief that an attack is imminent, causing a country to “miscalculate” the risk of full-scale war and escalate a conflict to the nuclear level.
It also described AI as a “chronic risk” for the first time, meaning it poses a threat over the long-term, rather than an acute threat such as a terror attack.
Ministers believe the advanced technology could at some stage pose an acute security threat, if it were used to launch a cyber attack on the country.
Climate change, antimicrobial resistance and serious organised crime were identified as other chronic threats in the report.
Worth reading in full.
