by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:
The economic meltdown that is coming should not be a surprise to anyone. Throughout U.S. history, there have always been signs that a major downturn was coming, and that is precisely what we are witnessing right now. Tax revenues are way down, demand for trucking services is way down, demand for cardboard boxes is way down, the money supply is shrinking at the fastest pace in modern history, and the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has already declined for 15 months in a row. At this point, anyone that cannot see what is coming has got to be willingly blind. The following are 7 trends which indicate that economic disaster is approaching very rapidly…
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#1 When economic activity slows down, less tax revenue comes in. Right now, federal government and state government tax revenues are declining precipitously…
US state and local governments just experienced the worst decline in income tax revenues ever recorded.
This was the second steepest year-over-year percentage decline in history, with only the GFC having a worse outcome.
Note that Federal tax receipts are also dropped again, now at recessionary levels and approaching -10% on a YoY basis.
#2 When the economy slows down, trucking companies see less demand for their services. So it is deeply alarming that truck freight volume and spending absolutely plummeted during the second quarter…
Truck freight volume and spending in the second quarter of 2023 declined by the highest levels since the early days of the pandemic, the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index revealed. Spending by shippers dropped 10.9% compared to the second quarter of 2022 while shipment volume dropped 9%, according to a statement from the Minneapolis-based bank.
#3 Employment is supposed to be the “bright spot” for the economy, but the latest employment report shows that the U.S. actually lost 585,000 full-time jobs last month…
Well, one look at this month’s adjustment and it’s literally a shocker: you will not hear anyone from the Biden admin or associated economist cheerleaders mention this, but the BLS reported that in July the number of full-time jobs plunged by 585,000 to 134.274 million, the biggest monthly drop since record covid crash of 14.7 million jobs!
#4 U.S. employers have already announced more job cuts this year than they did in all of 2022, and the hits just keep on coming…
CVS Health said Monday it is cutting approximately 5,000 jobs to focus more on healthcare services for its customers.
The move, which is supposed to help the company save money, will affect workers primarily in corporate jobs, the Wall Street Journal reported.
#5 Thanks to rapidly rising interest rates, monthly costs for new homebuyers are almost 20 percent higher than they were a year ago. This is absolutely crushing the housing market…
The monthly cost for a potential homebuyer has surged nearly 20% compared with a year ago as prices remain elevated, according to new data.
During the four-week period ending July 30, the monthly mortgage payment for the typical U.S. homebuyer sat at $2,605, 19% higher than the same period a year earlier, according to Redfin.
#6 The fact that delinquency rates for commercial real estate mortgages are skyrocketing is yet another sign that we are in the early stages of the worst commercial real estate crisis in all of U.S. history…
The delinquency rate of commercial real estate mortgages on office properties that had been securitized into Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) spiked to 5.0% by loan balance in July, up from a delinquency rate of 2.8% in April, having now spiked by 2.2 percentage points in three months, by far the biggest three-month spike in the data going back to 2000, and by 3.4 percentage points so far this year, by far the biggest seven-month spike, according to Trepp, which tracks and analyzes CMBS.
#7 The share of the U.S. population that cannot even afford “a $400 emergency expense” just continues to go up…
“The share of U.S. adults who said they would cover a $400 emergency expense with cash or equivalents dropped by 2 percentage points from the previous quarter to 46%, highlighting how cash-strapped many Americans are despite the recent decrease in headline inflation,” according to the survey developed by Bloomberg and conducted by intelligence company Morning Consult.
But Joe Biden and his defenders continue to insist that everything is just fine.
In fact, Joy Behar is quite certain that “the economy is booming” right now…
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