by Tom Luongo, Tom Luongo:
July began with a series of bangs that cannot be ignored. I’m not talking about the noise coming from both Russia and Ukraine over the ‘counter-offensive’ or who wants to blow up the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant.
I’m talking about the downstream effects that conflict has brought about. The old world is breaking down along sectarian lines as we watch Russia continue to fight the West to a standstill along the banks of the Dnieper river.
And a standstill should be the most likely outcome on all of our geopolitical bingo cards.
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From capital markets to geopolitics I’ve been targeting next week’s big NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania as a potential turning point. All of the conflicts out there today clogging up the headlines, from naval encounters in the Persian Gulf to Janet Yellen stoking conflict with China with her mere presence, reduce to a single conclusion.
Every major power faction in the West is fearing loss of power.
In 2018 this was a big insight into geopolitics. Today it’s passe and with good reason.
It’s obvious.
But that’s where the easy part ends. Because when you reach periods like this, where some players have gone off script and the plan has not survived contact with the enemy, the natural reaction to that is factionalization.
Cartels are meta-stable, all of them. From the local school board to the biggest international convocation of globalists, cartels are only as strong as the current hand held by all the players.
To use my well-worn hockey analogy, when the team is winning there are no problems in the locker room. When the losing starts, that’s when the fingers point, the voices rise, and eventually the coach gets fired because you can’t fire the whole team.
Today French President Emmanuel Macron may just be the coach.
The infighting at the top of the cabal that thinks it runs the world is reaching a fever pitch. The stench of desperation is so thick now they have to send the old folks out to do diplomacy because they don’t sweat as much.
And this brings me to France and Macron.
Long Guillotines
The riots in France have been a long time coming. The middle class has been in revolt for years over Davos policy designed to destroy their lives and force them into pods or be destroyed. From the Yellow Vests initial protests to today’s outright riots, France has been building to this moment for years.
Immigration has riven the strong French identity apart. And now we have the predictable inter-racial violence sparked by the death of a 17 year-old Algerian. But is that the real story? Is it the only angle on this story?
Of course it isn’t. And I’m not here to tell you I know what that real story is but I can tell you, as always, that the timing is dubious especially considering what’s happening at the international level as we approach next week’s NATO summit.
My good friend Alex “All Roads Lead to London” Krainer published a thoughtful piece on France and, predictably, he came to the tentative conclusion that the current explosion of violence in France bears all the hallmarks of a British-led color revolution.
And it’s hard to disagree with him.
France has been a thorn in the side of the march towards NATO expansion and US/UK-led dominance of policy for decades going back to DeGaulle. Even committed globalist leaders like Francois Hollande and Jacques Chirac opposed the way NATO has morphed since the end of the Soviet Union (see Alex’s brief history lessons for context).
Now, it’s not as simple as Macron would like you to believe; he’s the good cop to everyone else’s bad cop when it comes to war with Russia and/or China. But you would be hard-pressed to believe otherwise if you just scanned certain headlines and didn’t dig even a millimeter deeper.
Everyone in the EU has their assigned roles and they play them to the hilt perfectly. The problem comes when those roles clash with the other members of the cabal, some of whom are either getting cold feet or believe the current leadership is off-program.
This is what I think is happening between the Anglosphere and France, in particular.
Macron was not playacting when he was blindsided by the AUKUS alliance and the cancellation of the submarine contract in 2021. His powerbase rests on keeping both the French military, held in very high regard by the French people, and the French military contractors happy.
Losing that contract was a major slap in the face to both. So, this lends some credence to Macron being the point man for the EU’s power play to control/undermine NATO and replace it with his long sought after EU Army.
In the run up to the current war against Russia being fought in Ukraine, Macron has presented himself as the guy trying to stop the madness and avoid war. He very publicly made a call to Moscow before the war broke out to try and intermediate.
