by Angeline Tan, The New American:
Germany will have to bear with further limitations in gas consumption or experience a grave gas shortage next winter, the nation’s Gas Storage Association (INES) cautioned on Wednesday, April 19.
The INES report pointed out that current measures require German gas storages to be filled to only 40 percent by the end of January 2024, permitting the country to weather through the next winter “if temperatures are warm.” The report then elaborated that “if temperatures are medium to cold, the gas storage facilities will be heavily or completely emptied.”
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At the very worst, the storage facilities will be “already completely emptied in January 2024 during cold temperatures,” the forecast predicted, highlighting that Berlin would likely be unable to make up for missing volumes, thus facing a grave shortage for the remainder of the winter.
“Looking ahead to the coming winter, gas supply security in Germany has not yet been restored,” the INES managing director, Sebastian Bleschke, warned. “It is crucial to fill the gas storage facilities and greatly reduce consumption when it gets cold,” he maintained.
Moreover, Bleschke urged German gas infrastructure to expand to “be activated at short notice and actually provide additional gas in the coming winter.”
Notably, the INES forecast portrayed “warm winter temperatures” such as those experienced in the Baltic Sea region, Finland, and Western Russia in 2020, when temperatures rose up to eight degrees Celsius warmer than on average.
Also, the report premised a “cold winter” scenario on the 2010-2011 winter season in Europe that witnessed historic cold temperatures in Ireland, France, the U.K., and parts of Scandinavia.
Together with other EU member states, Germany has been slowly decreasing its dependence on Russian energy supplies since the start of the Russo-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.
Last month, Klaus Müller, head of Germany’s Federal Network Agency (the Bundesnetzagentur) told the Rheinische Post that his country faced a potential energy crisis in the upcoming winter.
At the time of his interview, Müller asserted that Germany’s gas storage facilities were then 64-percent full, and that German energy supply for the remainder of this winter season was guaranteed. Nonetheless, he added that “we should not relax, as things could be different next winter.”
“We cannot rule out a gas shortage for next winter. Risk factors are that the winter of 2023/24 will be very cold, that households and companies will save too little, that the LNG terminals will not work as planned — we would also have to help our neighboring countries with their energy problems,” Müller stated, pointing out that with regard to the upcoming winter and heating season, the weather would be the largest risk factor.
“We cannot rely on the fact that next winter will be mild again. When it’s cold, many households immediately stop saving. In warm October they saved more than 20% of gas, while during the cold snap in December — only 7%.”
Besides, Müller mentioned that Germany’s upcoming heating season would be vulnerable due to a lack of Russian energy supplies, the latter which enabled the country to fill up storage tanks for last year’s heating season.
Although the EU did not explicitly forbid Russian pipeline gas imports, gas flows nevertheless dropped considerably owing to Ukraine-related sanctions and the alleged American sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, one of the key routes for Russian gas to Europe.
Consequently, Germany no longer procures Russian gas directly, and the era of cheap energy prices from Russia is over, Müller contended.
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