by Wallace Garneau, American Outloud:
Millions upon millions of Americans expected a red wave last night, including the group that has historically been the most accurate in predicting election outcomes – professional gamblers.
I watch the news coverage as the polls close, but I have also learned to keep a close eye on electionbettingodds.com, which is a website that compiles the betting activities in casinos and online betting websites to compile a composite of what professional gamblers think the results will be, and since these people bury their bias behind their desire to make money (and do a tremendous amount of research), the gamblers are generally far more accurate than any poll.
TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/
Last night the gamblers got it wrong, at one point shortly after the first polls closed, predicting an 85% likelihood of Republicans gaining control of the Senate (with a predicted 53 seats) and a 92% probability of Republicans getting control of the House.
By the time I went to bed, the same sight had swung 49.3% in the Senate race and predicted that Democrats would have 51 seats. Gamblers were still pretty sure the Republicans would win the House, but by a much narrower margin than previously estimated.
Throughout election day, the Democrats are making excuses: It’s Manchin! It’s voter suppression (with record turnout)! Electronic voting machines are easily hacked (the same people said they were unhackable after the 2020 election – but of course, they were easily hacked in 2016)! Republicans spewed misinformation to fool the American people into thinking the economy matters!
The White House spent half of election day attacking ‘MAGA extremists’ who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election and the other half denying the legitimacy of the 2022 midterms by calling back on the supposedly illegitimate 2016 election. Stacey Abrams, facing a double-digit deficit in polling, told us she would win if only voters could navigate Georgia’s system of voter suppression, and that if she lost, of course, it would not be legitimate.
Message to voters: “It’s OK when we do it, though.”
And then the most remarkable thing happened – Democrats likely kept the Senate, and if the remaining close races all fall to Democrats over the coming days and weeks, they could even keep the House.
So what happened?
From a results perspective, Democrats did much better than expected, where Democrats controlled the Governorship and the Attorney General, and Republicans did about as expected everywhere else. Republicans cleaned house in Florida, for example, but got absolutely crushed in Michigan.
Was there cheating? Of course, there was. There is always cheating. The real question is whether or not there was enough cheating to sway the results.
I don’t want to speculate on ballot fraud. Many states made illegal changes to their election systems during Covid that made it much easier to vote while also making it much easier to cheat, and then kept those changes for 2022. The official story is that low turnout is a far greater threat to our democracy than ballot fraud could ever be. Democrats claim that these changes are simply to make voting easier, but these changes unquestionably also make it easier to vote illegally.
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