by Peter Schiff, Schiff Gold:
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Registered = Warrant assigned and can be used for Comex delivery, Eligible = No warrant attached – owner has not made it available for delivery.
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Current Trends
Gold
It’s been four months of a relentless decrease in gold holdings at the Comex. This was highlighted last month and the momentum has continued into September. Since May, almost $9M ounces of gold have left Comex vaults.
Figure: 1 Recent Monthly Stock Change
Over the last 30 days, Registered has seen a fall of 1.47M ounces with Eligible losing 170k. As shown below, nearly every day shows a net loss in metal.
Figure: 2 Recent Monthly Stock Change
Silver
Silver is slightly different than gold. The action has been focused primarily on Registered metal (metal available for delivery). Only one month (March) has seen an increase in Registered since December of last year. In fact, since March of last year, Registered has only seen a meaningful increase in inventory in two months.
Figure: 3 Recent Monthly Stock Change
The bleed-out of Registered can be seen below with consistent movement out throughout the last 30 days. Nearly 11M ounces have left Registered during this time.
Figure: 4 Recent Monthly Stock Change
The table below summarizes the movement activity over several time periods to better demonstrate the magnitude of the current move.
Gold
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- Over the last month, gold has seen Registered fall by 10.2%, or 1.4M ounces
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- Combined with the outflow in Eligible, total inventories dropped 5.7% or 1.6M
- In the last week, the action has been Registered moving to Eligible
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- Inventory is down over the past year by 20%
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- Eligible is down 11% and Registered down almost 30%!
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- Over the last month, gold has seen Registered fall by 10.2%, or 1.4M ounces
Silver
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- Silver Registered is down by almost 20% in the last month
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- Registered silver is down an incredible 56% in the last year and 69% over three years
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- Eligible is nearly flat over the month, with a fall of 1.2%
- Combined, inventory has dropped 4% in the last month, but the fall in Registered is clearly accelerating
- Silver Registered is down by almost 20% in the last month
At the current pace, Registered silver could be fully depleted by January!
Figure: 5 Stock Change Summary
The next table shows the activity by bank/Holder. It details the numbers above to see the movement specific to vaults.
Gold
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- Every vault has seen inventories fall over the last year with 5 vaults seeing supply fall by more than 30%
- Over the last month, 5 of 8 vaults lost gold with only meager gains seen in Delaware Depository and HSBC
Silver
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- Silver has seen massive outflows MoM with 3 vaults seeing almost 10% or more reduction. 2 other vaults saw 5%+ reductions.
- Over the last year, only Delaware and Malca have seen increases in silver, with 7 vaults seeing sizable reductions (+10%)
Figure: 6 Stock Change Detail
Historical Perspective
Zooming out and looking at the inventory for gold and silver shows just how massive the current move has been. The decline has been swift and steep, with losses seen in both Eligible and Registered.
