by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk:
If Democrats manage to hold the House and pick up a single Senate seat, they will unleash a wave of very inflationary Progressive legislation.
Like Nate Silver or not, the above 538 House Forecast is a reasonable starting point for discussion.
Silver has the Republicans a slight favorite (68-32) favorite to win the House. That margin seems more than “slight” but use your own definition.
TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/
Majority Math
- There are 435 seats so 218 is a majority
- The current house makeup is 221 to 214
- A flip of 7 seats, my base forecast right now, would give the Republicans a 221-214 majority.
Republicans have a bit of a cushion in this. For example, AZ-2 and VA-2 could easily easily flip Red negating CA-27 and PA-7.
Election What If?
- If you give all 11 seats in the blue box to Republicans and all else stayed the same (it wouldn’t) Republicans would pick up 4 more seats for a net pickup of 11.
- If you give all 11 seats in the blue box to Democrats and all else stayed the same (it wouldn’t) Republicans would only flip a net of 3 seats giving Democrats a 218 to 217 majority of 1.
That latter scenario, or a similar outcome is unlikely, but it’s possible. One in four or five is not a major upset.
10-12 Seats Are Crucial
No one trusts these polls, but 10-12 tossup seats could easily determine this crucial midterm election.
Very few seats are actually in play in most elections. Only when there is a blowout do major shifts occur. Then midterm results return to the status quo sooner or later, and mostly sooner.
This setup is a result of extreme gerrymandering by both parties in the states they control.
And as a direct consequence, extreme candidates win nominations.
