The Phaserl


WARNING: The Global Oil & Gas Industry Is Cannibalizing Itself To Stay Alive

by Steve St. Angelo, SRSRocco Report:

While the Mainstream media continues to put out hype that technology will bring on abundant energy supplies for the foreseeable future, the global oil and gas industry is actually cannibalizing itself just to stay alive. Increased finance costs, falling capital expenditures and the downgrade of oil reserves are the factors, like flesh-eating bacteria, that are decimating the once great oil and gas industry.

This is all due to the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment in oil and gas industry. Unfortunately, most of the public and energy analysts still don’t understand how the Falling EROI is gutting the entire system. They don’t see it because the world has become so complex, they are unable to connect-the-dots. However, if we look past all the over-specialized data and analysis, we can see how bad things are getting in the global oil and gas industry.

Let me start by republishing this chart from my article, Future World Economic Growth In Big Trouble As Oil Discoveries Fall To Historic Lows:

The global oil industry only found 2.4 billion barrels of conventional oil in 2016, less than 10% of what it consumed (25.1 billion barrels). Conventional oil is the highly profitable, high EROI oil that should not be confused with low quality “unconventional” oil sources such as OIL SANDS or SHALE OIL. There is a good reason why we have just recently tapped in to oil sands and shale oil…. it wasn’t profitable for the past 100 years to extract it. Basically, it’s all we have left…. the bottom of the barrel, so to speak.

Now, to put the above chart into perspective, here are the annual global conventional oil discoveries since 1947:

You will notice the amount of new oil discoveries (2.4 billion barrels) for 2016 is just a mere smudge when we compare it to the precious years. Furthermore, the world has been consuming about an average of 70 million barrels per day of conventional oil production since 2000 (the total liquid production is higher, but includes oil sands, deep water, shale oil, natural gas liquids, biofuels and etc). Conventional oil production has averaged about 25 billion barrels per year.

As we can see in the chart above… we haven’t been replacing what we have been consuming for quite a long time. Except for the large orange bar in 2000 of approximately 35 billion barrels, all the years after were lower than 25 billion barrels. Thus, the global oil industry has been surviving on its past discoveries.

That being said, if we include ALL liquid oil reserves, the situation is even more alarming.

Global Oil Liquid Reserves Fall In 2015 & 2016

According to the newest data put out by the U.S. EIA, Energy Information Agency, total global oil liquid reserves fell for the past two years. The majority of negative oil reserve revisions came from the Canadian oil sands sector:

Of the 68 public traded energy companies used in this graph, total liquid oil reserves fell from 116 billion barrels in 2014 to 100 billion barrels in 2016. That’s a 14% decline in liquid oil reserves in just two years. So, not only are conventional oil discoveries falling the lowest since 1947, companies are now forced to downgrade their total liquid oil reserves due to lower oil prices.

This can be seen more clearly in the EIA chart below:

The “net proved reserves change” is shown as the black line in the chart. It takes the difference between the additions-revisions, (BLUE) and the production (BROWN). These 68 public companies have been producing between 8-9 billion barrels of oil per year.

Because of the downward revisions in 2015 and 2016, net oil reserves have fallen approximately 16 billion barrels, or nearly two years worth of these 68 companies total liquid oil production. If these oil companies don’t suffer anymore reserve downgrades, they have approximately 12 years worth of oil reserves remaining.

But… what happens if the oil price continues to decline as the global economy starts to really contract from the massive amount of debt over-hanging the system? Thus, the oil industry could likely cut more reserves, which means… the 12 years worth of reserves will fall below 10, or even lower. My intuition tells me that global liquid oil reserves will fall even lower due to the next two charts in the following section.

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