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My Newest “Most Likely To Catalyze The Big One”

by Andy Hoffman, Miles Franklin:

Today’s article is one of my scariest yet; as, after watching events unfold in the world’s most notorious geopolitical hotspot in recent weeks, it’s difficult to come up, using my best Spock-like logic, with an alternative conclusion to the potentially catastrophic one I’ll discuss today. Which, if it occurs, may catalyze not only the financial “big one” we all know is coming, but an era of political, geopolitical, economic, and monetary destabilization unlike; and potentially, unparalleled in its destructive value; anything yet witnessed.

That said, as serious as this topic is, I’d be remiss if I didn’t update you on the incredible depth of PiMBEEB headlines from the past 24 hours; starting with the epically disingenuous comments from New York Fed President – and former Goldman Sachs Chief Economist – Bill Dudley; validating, in spades, the theme of last week’s “unfathomably bald-faced lies depict a Fed desperate to promulgate a dead meme.

To that end, said Keynesian Keystone Kriminal had the gall to say “the flattening yield curve is not a negative signal for the U.S. economy”; when, aside from the fact that anyone with a half a brain knows we’re in a recession now, inverted yield curves have perfectly predicted every U.S. recession for at least the past four decades. Not to mention, the fact that yield curves worldwide have simultaneously inverted – including in China, despite its 6.5% “growth rate.” Which, I might add, is the lowest “growth” China has reported in the 30 years it has published such blatantly fraudulent economic data.

Better yet, Dudley topped his own stupidity by proclaiming “halting the tightening cycle would imperil the economy”; which not only logically makes no sense, but is the antithesis of the number one market fallacy – I mean “common knowledge” – of our time, that one should not “fight the Fed.” Pray tell, how is raising rates into a collapsing, historically debt-laden economy “good” for growth, whilst maintaining historically low rates is not? And by the way, taking interest rates from the zero bound – where they were held for seven years – to a piddling 1% a full 18 months later; whilst still maintaining a gargantuan $4.5 trillion balance sheet – excluding who knows how much “off balance sheet”; is hardly what I’d call a “tightening cycle.”

But hey, ugliness is in the eye of the beholder – as compared to every other Central bank (at least, their overt policies), I guess the Fed could, at this instant in time, be considered relatively “hawkish.” I mean, just yesterday, Bank of England Chief – and former Goldman Sachs partner – Mark Carney, did everything in his power to talk back the perceived “hawkishness” of last week’s BOE decision to maintain a 0.25% interest rate by “just” a 5-3 vote; claiming he’s “still worried about BrExit’s impact on the U.K. economy”; and thus, “now is not the time” to raise rates. As if such a time will ever arrive, in a nation whose banking sector rivals even China’s shadow banking sector as the world’s most leveraged.

And speaking of ugliness, to end this extremely ugly topic, does anyone out else sense, as I do, that it’s no “coincidence” that the Fed did everything it could, from a monetary standpoint, to support the Obama Administration – whilst doing everything in its power; like, say, raising rates into a plunging economy, and hinting it may “normalize” its balance sheet; to sabotage Donald Trump? You know, the “low interest rate person,” and “King of Debt,” who claims the “too strong” dollar is “killing” us.

OK, now that today’s “housekeeping” is behind us, let’s move on to one of the direst topics I’ve been forced to address – based on the mosaic I’ve developed in watching historically ominous geopolitical events unfold. Which, per today’s title, have caused me to “update” my internal “most likely to catalyze the big one” forecast. Not that I, or anyone else, has a “crystal ball” regarding the potential for major events to occur – particularly “black swans” that, by definition, could not possibly be predicted. That said, plenty of “grey swans” are lurking in the forefront; i.e., the “known unknowns” Donald Rumsfeld would have been watching – in his case, likely centered around his traitorous “neocon” circle.

Read More @ MilesFranklin.com

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