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Some Perspective On The Latest Commitment Of Traders Report

by Turd Ferguson, TF Metals Report:

Last Friday’s CoT for the Comex Metals was rather interesting from a historical perspective. Because of this…and because we know that not everyone listened to Friday’s podcast…it seemed appropriate to type up this written summary today.

Before we begin, it is VERY important to note the restrictions that have been deliberately placed on this info by the CFTC. Even though the Commitment of Traders reports are surveyed at the Comex close each Tuesday, the CFTC purposefully waits 74 hours before releasing the data to the general public. As you consider the degree to which the “regulators” at the CFTC are complicit in the ongoing price management and manipulation, ask yourself why it takes a handful of dedicated public servants 3 days to crank out these spreadsheets: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Also, we are going to assume that this data is accurate. There have been occasions in the past where the CFTC has put out some numbers that seemed odd and inconsistent to those of us who follow the reports weekly….only to have the CFTC come back the following week and correct their “mistakes”.

And lastly, never assume that this data is sacrosanct and honestly reported by The Banks. Over just the past three years, JPMorgan has been fined on several occasions for knowingly submitting false data:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-23/jpmorgan-fined-by-cftc-for-failure-to-submit-accurate-reports
http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6968-14

OK, now that we have that behind us, let’s take a look at last Friday’s report and point out a few of the important points.

Let’s start with Comex Digital Gold (or as we call it here, “CDG”). As you assess where price may go from here, please consider the following:

Over the past three reporting weeks, price has fallen by $35 or nearly 3%.
During this time period, the Large Speculators in CDG have reduced their NET long position by over 71,000 contracts or about 37%.
As of last Tuesday, when this latest CoT was surveyed, the Large Spec NET long position was just 126,724 contracts and the Commercial NET short position was just 142,859 contracts. These are the lowest NET positions since the CoT survey of February 21, 2017.
At 142,859 contracts NET short, the Commercial NET short position has been trimmed by more than 1/3 in just the past three weeks.
Perhaps most importantly from a historical perspective, at the recent price highs of July 5, 2016, the NET long position of the Large Specs was 316,037 contracts and the NET short position of the Commercials was 340,207. Ask yourself how high might price rise if these 200,000 Spec longs return to the Comex over the next few months?

Finally, for CDG, consider this chart:

Now let’s turn our attention to Comex Digital Silver or “CDS” for it’s here that the changes are rather eye-opening. Let’s lay some of them out as we did above for CDG:

Read More @ TFMetalsReport.com

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