by Stewart Dougherty, via Investment Research Dynamics:
Investment Research Dynamics is pleased to present another guest post by Stewart Dougherty. I wanted to preface Stewart’s formal essay with some thoughts he shared with me in our email exchanges leading up to his latest essay:
I haven’t shared with you one of the most important tenets of Inferential Analytics … namely, that the universal human condition is addiction. Addiction comes in hundreds of forms. Two of the most powerful are to money and power. HRC is addicted to both. She simply cannot let go of her presidential ambition, or her greed.
I must admit, when I saw her interviewed the other day regarding Syria, she looked terrible. Her legs looked as if they were about explode out of her pants, which were stretched to snapping. She looked like a human sausage. I thought her doctors would have been reversing her obesity by now, but apparently not. Among her other addictions, she is addicted to food, and is a glutton [IRD: she’s also an alcoholic]. Mentally, she is a complete mess. So I could be wrong … if she cannot get her gluttony under control, she cannot get to 2020. She simply will not have the required stamina, and could croak at any time.
My assumption is that when she smells Trump’s blood in the water, she will become so galvanized that she will get the gluttony under control, even if it’s only to get through the election. They will make Obama her running mate, if that’s what’s required to get her across the finish line. Then he can effectively have a third term, while she vegetates in a food coma.
We believe the 6 April 2017 Tomahawk missile attack on Syria indicates that Donald Trump has concluded that the fiscal, economic and political situations in the United States are beyond repair, and that without continued, massive military interventionism and spending, U.S. GDP will plunge, taking all of his campaign commitments down with it. Therefore, he has capitulated to the agenda of the Deep State looters and war profiteers. Trump’s capitulation has profound personal and financial implications for the citizens of the United States and the world.
The strikingly weak March employment report issued on 7 April 2017 demonstrated that rhetoric, no matter how well-intended, does not produce jobs or growth. Only genuine confidence, conviction and belief can do that, and after eight years of Obama’s colossal and deliberate “Hope and Change” lie, the people are not inclined to believe in political rhetoric at this time. We regard it as no coincidence that the attack on Syria occurred mere hours before the release of the March jobs report, the details of which would have been available to the President and his senior advisers in advance. Trump and his team knew that the news was bad, and that a course change and distraction were needed.
Increasingly, it appears that the American people will get a 21 ½ month Trump presidency (late January 2017 through early November 2018). Republicans are backing away from the Obamacare campaign promises they made to the people by merely substituting one massive government bureaucracy and socialized redistribution scheme for another. Far more troubling, they are now signaling that while corporate tax reform remains on the table, personal tax reform might have to wait. Which is their way of saying that personal tax reform will never happen at all, or it will be a deceptive shell game where a tax reduction to the left is completely neutralized by new or increased taxes to the right. Everywhere the people turn, they see the elites being further enriched while they sink further into an inescapable financial morass.
Accordingly, the 2018 mid-term election is shaping up to be a bloodbath for Republicans, with betrayed and disgusted Republican voters staying at home in droves, or voting Democrat out of spite and revulsion against the politicians who have betrayed them yet again. November 2018 will therefore mark the end of the Trump presidency, with the Deep State firmly running the show from then on as it prepares for 2020. There is no one on the bench at this time that the Deep State can rely on as fully as Hillary Clinton, try as they must and do to widen their options.
For her part, Clinton is taking a page out of Madonna’s book by remaking herself. In a recent speech in San Francisco, gone was the campaign era, pastel-colored pant suit, replaced by a dark leather outfit reminiscent of what one would see at a bikers’ convention. Apparently, there is going to be no more Mrs. Nice Guy. She is making it clear that she will no longer even attempt to appeal to the “deplorables,” now broadened to include the “misogynists,” whom she blames for her election loss. Instead, she is now 100% focused on her traditional, high-potential, core-constituencies, while she also eyes a developing vote bonanza: the growing cohort of Trump supporters who feel deceived, are furious about it, and will be out for revenge.
Clinton’s addictions to power and control make her enormously valuable to the Deep State. They know that she will effectively advance their agenda and enforce their mandates. Her addiction to money assures them that she will do exactly what she is well-paid to do. The problem, as before, is her health. Her 6 April 2017 interview at the Women in the World conference, during which she was seated the entire time, showed that she remains obese. And her walk across the large stage to the interview site was slow and measured, undermining the credibility of her repeated comments about taking “long walks in the woods” to find solace after her election loss. Nonetheless, on several occasions during the 48 minute interview, she spoke as if she were a presidential candidate. We believe her addictions to power, control and money will overcome, at least temporarily, her addiction to consumption.
If the Deep State does, in fact, tap her for 2020, it will spend millions on her medical and psychological care throughout the election process, to ensure that she appears to the populace to be sound of body and mind. There will be no more fainting spells or mental fade-outs, and she will be buoyed up by the best doctors and drugs that money can buy. To the greatest extent possible, her campaign will be conducted electronically, to keep the wear and tear of physical campaigning to a minimum.
We expect that HRC will raise more money for her 2020 bid than was spent by every single presidential and Congressional candidate in 2016; $7.5 billion, at a minimum, which will shatter the previous, 2016 record for presidential campaign spending. Given the trillions of dollars that can be looted from the United States economy during a 4 year presidency, donors can generate an astounding Return on Investment from their contributions, which is exactly why they spend so much to buy politicians. Republican donations will collapse.
Numerous reports indicate that Bill Clinton’s health is failing. His marked weight loss is obvious, as are several other observable symptoms of decline. Unfortunately, none of us can live forever, particularly those who have led “full,” pedal-to-the-metal lives.
Running to become both the first woman and first widowed president, HRC will uncork a vast, additive sympathy vote that will sweep her to victory. Millions of previously non-HRC voters will feel that she deserves the presidency, at long last, after everything she has been through. The people will be told that she lost her beloved husband due, in large part, to the toll taken by his profound sadness over the surprise outcome of the unfair, “Russian-rigged” 2016 election. USA!, USA!, USA! She will be cast as a brave, determined fighter who has persisted against all odds to bring the people to the Promised Land of government-manufactured utopia.
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