# Cut The Crap Trump And Congress: HealthCare

by Karl Denninger, Market Ticker:

Where is the discussion of facts when it comes to health care?

Why do we keep talking about the cost of “health insurance” when that’s a symptom and not the problem?

Why do we keep talking about “subsidies” (tax credits, etc)?

That entire line of discussion, which is the only discussion being held politically and in the news, is a fraud.

Why?

Two reasons: First, “health insurance” is not insurance to the extent it covers an event that is either certain to happen or has already happened. Insurance is a thing you buy to cover a possible future event you cannot pay for yourself. It is less expensive than the event will be only because the probability is less than 1.0 — that is, the event is unlikely. If the event is either certain or worse, has already happened then the probability is 1.0 and the cost of “insurance” against such an event is always more than simply paying for it in cash because the insurance company has costs it must cover or it will go out of business.

Let me repeat that just in case you missed it: The cost of insuring against a bad event is directly and mathematically determinable by the cost and probability of said event.

Second, due to the above mathematical fact if you wish to decrease the amount “insurance” costs there is only one way to do it: You must decrease the cost of the event, the probability of the event or both.

This is arithmetic, not politics and anyone arguing otherwise needs to be indicted, tried, convicted and imprisoned for their intentional act of fraud upon the public because that’s exactly what they’re doing — defrauding you.

I don’t care if they’re pundits, media personalities, Congresspeople or the President — and I remind you that The President is well aware of how insurance actually works since he’s been a Real Estate developer and operator for decades.

Now let’s address the only two means by which we can lower health insurance costs. And lower them we can — by 90% or so, and quickly too — in fact, within months.

First, insurance must be actual insurance. In other words it must only cover events for which p < 1.0. By definition those are events that are neither certain to happen (e.g. routine, every-day visits to a doctor) or have already happened (e.g. pre-existing conditions.) While you might be able to buy fire insurance on your house if it's on fire (or you are in the process of setting it on fire!) the cost of that insurance will always be more than the fire damage to said house because the probability is 1.0 and the company has to cover its cost and make a profit or it goes out of business. It is therefore always cheaper to simply pay cash for the fire damage than to buy said "insurance" and this is true irrespective of what you're "insuring" -- including health. Again, this is math, not politics. Second, we must address both "p" (probability) and "c" (COST.) We must address "p" (probability) because it will directly and grossly reduce the cost of insurance since it is a multiplier to cost. Reducing "p" by 10% directly reduces cost of insurance by 10% all other things being equal. Read More @ Market-Ticker.org

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