The Phaserl


Bitcoin Price Will Surge to $1645 in March If Winklevoss ETF Gets Green Light

by Olusegun Ogundeji, Coin Telegraph:

Speculation about the Winklevoss twins’ Bitcoin ETF possible regulatory approval continues. On March 11, the US Securities and Exchange Commission should come to its “yes” or “no” verdict after almost four years of waiting.

It may happen by the time two of the world’s top Bitcoin exchanges that are based in China –Huobi and OKCoin – would have resumed their full withdrawal services.

Most commentators are certain that the first Bitcoin exchange traded fund or ETF is not likely to be approved. However, commentaries are still divided over the issue and none of the stakeholders rule out the approval completely. The consequences of a positive decision could be huge.

So if it happens, what would the ETF mean to the market?

Yes means +68 percent return

Going by notable views at the moment, the chance of the Bitcoin ETF being approved is very slim.

Analyst firm Needham & Company, on Feb. 10, confirmed its prior estimate that it sees a “sub-25 percent” chance of approval for the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF. But, if approved, it says the ETF would likely attract more than $300 mln into the market in its first week alone.

Willy Woo, a cryptocurrency market analyst, also puts the approval probability at 25 percent andspeculates that $500 mln and $1 bln will be injected into the market.

Quantitative analysis and value research firm, Emerita Capital, assigned a probability of 35 percent for approval against 65 percent probability of rejection, making our final average expected price $1645.45 or a +67.8 percent expected return above the current price.

Chinese may be caught unprepared

By the time two of the world’s top Bitcoin exchanges – Huobi and OKCoin – would have resumed their full withdrawal services, in about a month of its KYC/AML system upgrade (it could be less), the first US-based Bitcoin ETF could be approved.

According to Spencer Bogart from Needham & Company, this ongoing upgrade is a plus for the approval bid of the Bitcoin ETF as trading is now somewhat more evenly spread geographically worldwide.

However, considering that ETFs have a long history of penetrating new and occasionally untapped investment areas, it’s likely that approval may dawn on Chinese players, unprepared for the first-mover advantage it would bring.

This is crucial, particularly now that the latest reports say the PBoC would be eyeing a tighter monetary policy as China’s inflation measures hit multi-year highs in January, up by 6.9 percent, and the consumer price index rose 2.5 percent.

Dollar sways

It should also be considered that Bitcoin transactions in US dollars have spiked of late even before the series of regulatory measures introduced by Chinese exchanges and there has been a relative price stability around the $1000 range even without the full participation of the most popular Chinese exchanges. The early user advantage will sway further to the US dollar transactions at the commencement of the ETF’s operation, though how better the experience gets would determine how long the focus on the market would be.


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7 comments to Bitcoin Price Will Surge to $1645 in March If Winklevoss ETF Gets Green Light

  • videoctr

    Why ETF? So that the criminals can short and manipulate the paper price in the direction of their choosing?

    • mike

      No..An etf will trade on the regular market tracking the price of btc. They will have to fund their etf will real btc they purchase from the btc market.
      When they purchase the btc needed for their etf if will have the same effect sprott had on the silver market raising the price..The difference is the etf will trade in one market and the btc pricing market will remain unchanged. You can only manipulate the BTC market with real btc..If the btc market goes down it is simply supply and demand.

      • videoctr

        What is there to stop them from creating a 3x leverage ETF (long or short ETF) like NUGT or DUST?

        • mike

          Nothing stopping them..think your missing the point. It will have nothing to do with the price of btc in anyway. The btc pricing markets only trade btc 1 for 1. The regular stock market will trade the etf. So you could buy this etf with your ameritrade account but you can buy btc with it. The etf will track the pricing of btc only.
          To fund the btc etf they will have to purchase a lot of btc from a real btc exchange.When they do that the price of btc will go up.

          We are talking 2 entirely different markets. 1 is honest, the btc pricing market and the other is not.

          This etf is a good deal because it tracks price and regular dumb joes can get some exposure through the etf. As btc rises to millions and billions a piece this price tracking etf will make a lot of millionaires.

  • The Truth

    ETF = Elites Thieving Funds. This is how they steal from millions of people!

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