by Michael Krieger, Liberty Blitzkrieg:
One of the things I try to do here at Liberty Blitzkrieg is identify and comment upon major macro trends before they become apparent to the public at large. Sometimes these trends are positive, while other times they are decisively negative. Since I started writing publicly, I’d say the emergence and success of Bitcoin has been the most positive macro development I’ve observed. While I certainly wasn’t an “early adopter” of the technology, I did identify it and highlight its significance well before most people had ever heard of it.
My first post on the topic was way back in August 2012, and since most of you weren’t following me back then, here it is for your enjoyment: Bitcoin: A Way to Fight Back Against the Financial Terrorists? A few weeks later, I received my first bitcoin donations from generous readers and the rest is history. The price was $10.
A couple of years later, I came across serial entrepreneur Vinny Lingham far before he became known as the “The Bitcoin Oracle.” He really caught my attention with a 2014 post describing why the price was acting so weak following its tremendous run the prior year. I found his thought process extremely compelling and I highlighted his thesis in the post: Guest Post: Why is the Bitcoin Price So Weak? I continued to follow his Bitcoin writings and have published them consistently ever since.
Which brings me to today’s post. A couple of days ago, Vinny updated his thoughts for 2017 and many people are making a big fuss about his commentary that he expects bitcoin to reach $3,000+ per BTC next year. I find this interesting, because this is not a new call for him. He said the exact same thing back in May, which represented a much bolder call since the price was trading below $500 (it’s at $950 today). That original forecast was covered in the post, Vinny Lingham on the Bitcoin Price – Prepare for the “Mother of All Short Squeezes.”
In any event, Vinny is back with his latest thoughts. Below are some key excerpts, and you can read the entire original here.
As much as I’m flattered by the attention and the emergence of nicknames such “Bitcoin Oracle” (Thanks to TwoBitIdiot for coining it!). I do feel the need to make a point of two things, in particular.
Firstly, I don’t have a crystal ball, and everything I say has a certain percentage chance of either occurring or not occurring — we live in a probabilistic world, so when I make a call, it’s because I think the outcome is highly likely, but that does not always mean it’s certain.
Secondly, I’m a macro guy — big picture focus. I don’t look at the trading charts every day (I just don’t have the time!) and even though I don’t actively trade anymore, I do understand things like leverage, slippage and liquidity in markets quite well. I don’t do technical analysis as macro factors will shift the playing field and disrupt the charts so in my opinion, they are often best used for looking back, and not forward.
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