by Wolf Richter, Wolf Street:
Wall Street’s best contrarian indicator has spoken. Jim Cramer issued a strong buy on the Dow last Wednesday. He references the “generals” that are “leading the charge” higher in the stock market. He sees no end in sight to current move in market leaders. Those will prove, once again for Cramer, famous last words. It will be more like Custard making his last stand.
Perhaps the most amusing section of his maniacal diatribe was his assertion that Goldman Sachs (GS) and JP Morgan (JPM) are “cheap” because of Trump. A colleague and I were, serendipitously discussing GS as a great short idea last week. Cramer is a bona fide lunatic who must relish the thought of leading the retail stock lemmings to slaughter. The financials have gone parabolic since the election and now the hedge funds who whisper sweet nothings into Cramer’s ear need an exit. Please don’t give up your chair to the sound of CNBC’s Pied Piper.
The puts on JPM and GS are loaded with premium. I don’t want to recommend any specific put ideas. If you have an interest in shorting shares, GS and JPM are among the best shorts in the Dow right now.
That was an excerpt from the latest issue of the Short Seller’s Journal. Shorts are working again. Four of the five short ideas in last week’s SSJ were down for the week (one was unchanged) – one retail idea was down 13.6% and the puts recommended were up 400%. In fact, most of the short ideas since early August have been working, some better than others, with one them down nearly 40% since early August.
Beneath the facade of the Dow and the SPX, many stocks and sectors are down for year. For instance, the DJ Home Construction index is down 11.1% from its 52-week high early this year. It’s 52% below its all-time high in July 2005. The current SSJ presents an home construction-related stock that is technically and fundamentally set-up to fall off a cliff. I also presented my for favorite homebuilder shorts along with put option ideas.
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