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2016: What Was And a Preview of 2017

by Karl Denninger, Market Ticker:

Historically speaking The Market Ticker used to publish an “annual review” including a set of predictions. Some years worked out pretty good, others not so much. But even the “bad” years weren’t too bad in retrospect; if you make a dozen predictions and get half right over a year’s time that really is quite a bit better than you might first think — although nowhere near good enough to dub yourself Nostradamus.

As I intended in my ticker entitled In Closing from February of 2014 I’ve wound things back around here quite a bit. Not completely, but materially. The software here was at version 41.4 when I penned that piece; it is currently 45.5. That’s more than four revisions greater, since there have been a bunch of “point” changes since — mostly bug fixes but a few enhancements too.

The post (thread) count was 228,802 when I penned that piece. It currently stands at 231,735. The Bar (for user-generated threads and comments, open to anyone who used to be a donor at any time in the system’s history) has been reopened this fall, and for the time being I intend to leave it accessible into 2017. You can find it from the “top” menu here if you’re signed in and once had donor-level access — or just go directly to our companion domain at tickerforum.org.

There were 7,950 Tickers posted from the inception of the site to February 2014. Since there have been 2,777 more. There were 650 posted this year. However, the volume has dropped quite materially, especially in the back half; the count has been about one a day, on average since July, including a “burst” of them for the election season.

The donation system went away quite some time ago and this year the advertising system was almost-completely shut down as well, leaving it just active enough to remain “alive” from the adsense syndication system’s point of view.

Here’s the issue I have when it comes to continuing what I’ve been doing, when you get down to it: Nothing has really changed at all in terms of either outcomes or even interest among readers here. Not one of the pinned threads more-recent than my In Closing missive has managed to reach materially over 50,000 views. The only pieces to get any sort of “real attention” were those related to the election and of those none had a thing to do with policy.

But….. we’re two more years down the road and, as I pointed out in October about four years from the detonation of our nation’s finances.

A detonation, I remind you, that I’ve been raising hell about since the 1990s; it has been visible for that long on the horizon, and has been a focus here since The Market Ticker began publication.

Ever watch “Gran Torino”? When you go into the bathroom with a hacking cough and blood comes up you got a big ****ing problem. This nation has been hacking up blood for decades and we’re still, as a population and nearly to an individual, looking for the “investment” that will make more money as our “response” to that. What are you going to do with it all when overcome by events? You can’t eat your stawks, you know.

So here’s the deal as I see it: Trump is not going to save the world — or America. He’s not even going to save you. Hell, you just watched Obama, according to the media, Trump, the Republicans and a bunch of others “stab Israel in the back” by refusing to veto a UN resolution stating theft of land is illegal.

Really folks?

Look, I get it — the UN sucks (I agree with that, by the way) and to the victors go the spoils when it comes to war. Go ask those displaced in Aleppo and elsewhere through the world how private property rights have worked out for them when it comes to owning a home or business. Expropriation is part and parcel of what governments do, but why pussy-foot around with it and exactly how does doing so make you anything more than a sniveling pack of fraudsters?

If Israel is going to consider a 50 year past war justification for seizing land then seize the land, all at once, re-draw the border to encompass same and be done with it. The idea that they can keep dicking around with this and by stealing a little bit here and there, one house or “settlement” at a time it is ok but if they did it all at once it wouldn’t be is outrageous, it has been outrageous for 50 ****ing years and it doesn’t change in character based on who’s doing it or why. War sucks although it is sometimes necessary but this load of crap is nothing more than finding a way to turn a short war into one that has now spanned generations and shows no sign of ever ending — why don’t we just admit that too many people like this war for any serious effort to sue for peace to be accepted?

More to the point given who’s involved, since when is intentionally extending a war for five decades by jacking around instead of being decisive in your actions “noble”, “honorable” or appropriate, say much less justified if you’re “God’s chosen people”? I seem to remember a bunch of folks got a 40 year sentence of wandering in the desert for jacking around when it came to doing the right thing at a time in the distant past — or so says a tale some consider to be divinely written. Have you ever bothered reading your professed Holy Book, Bibi?

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