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The Stock Market Has Predicted The Outcome Of Presidential Elections With 86 Percent Accuracy

by Michael Snyder, End Of The American Dream:

If you want Donald Trump to win the election, then you should be rooting for a stock market crash between now and November. As you will see below, if stocks go up during the last three months before an election, the incumbent party almost always keeps the White House. But if stocks go down during the last three months before an election, the incumbent party almost always loses. Earlier today, Trump warned Americans to get out of the stock market, and if his warning turns out to be correct it will likely benefit him politically as well. When the general population believes that things are going well, Americans tend to stick with current leadership, but when the general population believes that we have hit rocky times they are usually ready for a change.

It turns out that this very strong correlation between the direction of the stock market and the outcomes of presidential elections goes all the way back to before the days of the Great Depression. The following comes from Zero Hedge

Since 1928, there have been 22 Presidential Elections. In 14 of them, the S&P 500 climbed during the three months preceding election day. The incumbent President or party won in 12 of those 14 instances. However, in 7 of the 8 elections where the S&P 500 fell over that three month period, the incumbent party lost.

The last time this correlation failed was back in 1980, and at that time Americans were feeling depressed about the country for other reasons. Overall, the stock market has predicted the outcome of presidential elections with 86 percent accuracy, and that is way too strong of a correlation to ignore. Just consider the gains or losses that we have seen for the S&P 500 during the last three months prior to each election since 1928 and the outcomes of those elections

1928: 13.6 percent gain – incumbent party won

1932: -2.6 percent loss – incumbent party lost

1936: 7.9 percent gain – incumbent party won

1940: 8.6 percent gain – incumbent party won

1944: 2.3 percent gain – incumbent party won

1948: 5.4 percent gain – incumbent party won

1952: -3.3 percent loss – incumbent party lost

1956: -2.6 percent loss – incumbent party won

1960: -0.7 percent loss – incumbent party lost

1964: 2.6 percent gain – incumbent party won

1968: 6.5 percent gain – incumbent party lost

1972: 3.0 percent gain – incumbent party won

1976: -0.1 percent loss – incumbent party lost

1980: 6.7 percent gain – incumbent party lost

1984: 4.8 percent gain – incumbent party won

1988: 1.9 percent gain – incumbent party won

1992: -1.2 percent loss – incumbent party lost

1996: 8.2 percent gain – incumbent party won

2000: -3.2 percent loss – incumbent party lost

2004: 2.2 percent gain – incumbent party won

2008: -19.5 percent loss – incumbent party lost

2012: 2.5 percent gain – incumbent party won

As you can see, the only times the correlation broke down were during the years of 1956, 1968 and 1980.

But this is a very strange year. We have never seen a candidate like Donald Trump before, and the establishment is pulling out all of the stops in an effort to derail his march to the White House. So the normal rules may not apply this time around.

On Tuesday, Barack Obama took time out of his busy schedule to tell the press that Trump is “woefully unprepared” to be president, and he called on Republican leaders to pull their support from him

“There has to come a point at which you say somebody who makes those kinds of statements doesn’t have the judgment, the temperament, the understanding to occupy the most powerful position in the world,” Obama said at the event with PM Lee Hsien Loong.

“There has to be a point in which you say this is somebody I can’t support for president of United States,” the president said. “There has to be a point in which you say ‘enough.’”

Read More @ EndOfTheAmericanDream.com

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1 comment to The Stock Market Has Predicted The Outcome Of Presidential Elections With 86 Percent Accuracy

  • rich

    NYT Pushes PEU Dependence on Public

    NYT’s Bottom Line Nation published an odd series of slides praising the impact of private equity underwriters (PEU). Readers are free to scroll through their slides in a search for actual substance.

    A different Bottom Line Nation story stated:

    The amount the private equity industry spent on lobbying in 2015 was more than triple what it had spent a decade earlier, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. At the peak of the financial crisis, the figure was even higher. Political donations have increased nearly sixfold.

    Remember: Politicians Red and Blue love PEU! If private equity is so integral to daily life NYT could be paving the way for the next bailout.<<<—–

    Note: PEUReport houses ten years of stories showing the impact of private equity. Feel free to search the site for issues important to you. There might be actual information on private equity's impact, current or historical.

    http://peureport.blogspot.com/2016/08/nyt-pushes-peu-dependence-on-public.html

    massive debt structures and mark to model

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