by Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls:
As regular readers know, when it comes to my own work, the problem is not performing the analysis. The problem is the lack of anything to analyze — in the Wonderland Matrix.
The problem is that in the real world, there is this thing called (economic) “fundamentals”. You perform analysis by connecting-the-dots (correctly) with respect to those fundamentals. However, the Wonderland Matrix is a fantasy-world, and in this fantasy-world fundamentals don’t count — indeed they are rarely even mentioned.
What we get instead is endless, so-called “price analysis”. The problem is that price is not a fundamental of any market. Thus price analysis is (at best) a derivative of legitimate, fundamentals-based analysis.
As a derivative of fundamentals-based analysis, the only way that price analysis has any validity at all is in rational, legitimate, non-corrupt markets. Because it is only in such markets where “price” actually means anything. We have the opposite of this, we have totally corrupt, totally rigged markets.
In rigged markets, price is the product of crime. It is an arbitrary number, and attempting to analyze an arbitrary number is a facile activity. Case in point is perpetual market-pumper, perennial gold-bear, and supposed “expert”, Dennis Gartman. In his endless pumping of (mostly) U.S. markets, almost all we ever get is price analysis:
“Look how high the price has already gone. Look how much higher I thinkthe price is going to go.”
That’s not “analysis”. That is cheerleading. It’s also not how to make money in markets. Buy high, and try to sell higher.
What have we seen in recent months? U.S. markets had gotten so obviously over-valued, the “rally” had gotten so over-extended and rancid with time, that perma-bull Gartman did something he rarely does: flip-flopped from Bull to Bear. He began to make bearish bets, because these pseudo-analysts don’t invest, they only gamble. But Gartman’s bearish bets weren’t paying off.
So now Gartman is flip-flopping back to a Bull. Why? Did sober analysis indicate that the fundamentals had changed? Of course not. Gartman flip-flopped back from Bear to Bull simply because the prices were moving in the opposite direction…
He has no reason at all to flip-flop back to being a Bull. Even his own (silly) price analysis is telling him that the markets are even more overvalued than when he did his first flip-flop. He has become a “bull” again for only one reason: to chase the markets higher, when they are already at RIDICULOUS bubble levels.
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